Market Indicators

In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the recent performance of gold and its ongoing role as a store of value in investors’ portfolios.

If there is something the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not want to see today, as it approaches next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, it is a shock to oil prices.

The question isn’t whether robots will transform global labor markets. It’s how quickly the transformation will unfold. This transformation presents both unprecedented challenges and remarkable opportunities.

What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.

The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room.

The United States consumes a large share of its GDP; China, not so much. The result is Yin and Yang. On net, China produces and the US consumes.

Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).

Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.

The calm before the storm is here – and the Fed knows it won’t last. This week’s Fed meeting is expected to be relatively straightforward.

Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.

President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a new trade agreement with China is the kind of headline that gives markets a sense of relief. As I overheard this week at Wealth Management’s EDGE conference, which I attended in Boca Raton, Florida, we may have dodged a recession.

Last week’s economic signals showed cautious optimism and renewed concern. Inflation saw a slight uptick in May.

Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence.

Separating the signal from the noise may be the hardest challenge investors face. We’re all surrounded by constantly changing but mostly unimportant information. Of the small part that really is important, we must decide if it affects our investments.

Tariff policy has clouded expectations for the second half of the year, but there are ways to navigate through the fog.

Fears of an impending recession may be fading, but economists are still expecting tepid GDP growth for the year.

Just one day after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba likened Japan’s debt situation to that of Greece, the country faced its weakest demand for 20-year bonds since 2012.

Despite inflation worries, fiscal deficit concerns, and continued geopolitical conflict, equity markets posted strong returns in May on the back of easing tariff tensions, lower probability of recession, and better than expected US Q1 earnings.

In the current land of uncertainty the markets and investors find themselves in, the monthly Employment Situation report is ‘must-see TV’ and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.

Supporters of tax cuts argue that they eventually "pay for themselves" and lower deficits through economic growth and increased revenue, even without significant spending cuts.

With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.

While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.

The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?

The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.

The US housing market remains in a state of inertia. Despite the arrival of the spring selling season, both new and existing home sales continue to underwhelm.

The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.

Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.

Back during the Financial Panic of 2008, clickbait media kept screaming “Hyperinflation.” We consistently pushed back against this theme, and argued inflation would not accelerate.

Last week’s employment report was an important stabilizer for the markets. After concerning revisions and weak ADP numbers raised recession alarms, Friday’s payrolls print calmed fears on labor market deterioration.

As we head into the second half of the year, US markets seem to be turning around, with economic data​ that is still coming in mixed. The major US indices were up the first three days of last week, dipping on Thursday after weaker back-to-back readings of the US labor market.

Today we’ll continue our SIC highlight series featuring a relatively new face who is now indispensable, plus some new ones who were crowd favorites.

It would seem evident that most investors would understand that consumer spending drives economic growth, ultimately creating corporate earnings growth. Yet, despite this somewhat tautological statement, Wall Street appears to ignore this simple reality when forecasting forward earnings.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) lost its chance to lower interest rates further during the first half of the year, when inflation came down to close to its 2.0% target with very limited risk that its decision would have triggered higher inflation.

Rebounding demand from ETF investors and resilient buying from central banks and Asia retail have propelled gold prices to fresh records north of US$3,000/oz. Find out why we believe there is more room to run.

Last week, the labor market took center stage, presenting a nuanced picture of continued resilience alongside subtle signs of softening.