For the second meeting in a row, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%–4.50%.
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 21, 2025 at 4.25%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.94% and the 30-year note ended at 4.59%.
The Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was right — but easy to misinterpret.
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady and signaled two rate cuts this year, despite expecting inflation to remain elevated.
Despite the increase in policy uncertainty, the Federal Reserve held its forecast steady at the March FOMC meeting with two rate cuts projected in 2025.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, but downgraded the outlook for economic growth in the year ahead. Policy changes in Washington, looming tariffs, and a cautious consumer have made “uncertainty” the new favorite word in the Fed’s vocabulary.
In February, home values rose for the 23rd consecutive month, reaching a new all-time high, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for the 10th straight month, hitting their lowest level since May 2021.
The Exchange Conference starts this weekend. The latest Road to Exchange video features keynote Jennifer Morgan, CEO & founder of Connective Communication LLC. VettaFi Senior Industry Analyst Kirsten Chang interviewed Morgan about the upcoming conference.
When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?
Existing home sales rebounded in February with their largest monthly increase in a year. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 4.2% from January, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million units in February.
After years of poor decision-making, the federal government’s $1.64 trillion student loan program is in critical condition. Congress needs to stanch the bleeding — and give serious thought to overhauling this flawed system for the longer term.
On the predictable side, the Fed kept policy rates in a range of 4.25%-4.5%, and the rate-setting committee pledged to slow the pace at which it’s allowing securities to roll off its balance sheet.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed continued expansion though activity declined. In March, the index fell to 12.5 from 18.1 in February, the second consecutive monthly drop. The latest reading was higher than the forecast of 8.8.
In the week ending March 15th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 223,000. This represents an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 224,000 forecast.
Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.”
In the understatement of 2025 thus far, the headlines emanating from Washington, D.C., have been fast and furious. Whether they be tariff-related, involving federal government cuts or geopolitical in nature, there has been a headline for many facets that investors could think of.
Recession fears have risen sharply of late as economic soft data have rolled over, upping the risk that hard data start to catch down.
European equities have started 2025 on a positive note. Several factors could help support the market overcome challenging conditions.
Receiving an unexpected gift or inheritance is something that people may dream about. Our Bill Cass discusses some key considerations if that dream becomes reality and you do receive a financial windfall.
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on February 4, equity markets have been under pressure as the S&P 500 has retraced more than 23% of the rally that started October 2023.
The Federal Reserve concluded its second meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
I’ve spent much of my career coaching and providing learning opportunities for those professionals who want to improve. This week I had an experience that moved me to write a column about the difficulty in opening one’s self up to being willing to be coached, and of making behavioral change.
Bond investors will look for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to hit just the right notes in his Wednesday remarks to keep up the momentum behind a rally in the $29 trillion Treasury market.
Two Sessions, or Lianghui, is the popular name for the annual meeting of China’s top legislative and consultative bodies. These gatherings are closely watched by overseas observers as they provide key insight into China’s political landscape, economic priorities and overall policy direction.
I recently celebrated another trip around the sun, which meant I couldn’t let the occasion pass without enjoying some birthday cake.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
Gas prices were down for a fourth straight week, hitting their lowest level in two months. As of March 17th, the price of regular and premium gas were down 1 and 2 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.373, up 2.0% from last week.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through February. The latest debt level is at $918.144 billion, just below its record high from January. Margin debt was down 2.0% month-over-month (MoM) and up 23.6% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, the debt level was down 2.5% MoM and up 20.2% YoY.
Banks needed the right version of Donald Trump to justify their high-flying stock prices. They got the wrong one. The US president’s chaotic and aggressive performance during his first few weeks in the White House has shocked companies, put investment plans and deals on hold and threatens to drag the economy into recession.
The share of US workers making a direct transition from one employer to another has slid near a four-year low, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, pointing to a weakening labor market.
I often encounter individuals struggling with financial stress – whether it's saving for retirement, building an emergency fund, or paying down debt. To better understand these concerns, Barnum conducted a comprehensive study on the financial wellness of working Americans.
There’s nothing like a good sale to get people excited—unless that sale happens in the stock market. Instead of celebrating a chance to buy at a discount, investors panic, dump stocks, and brace for economic doom.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits fell for a third straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.456 million in February. This marks a 1.2% decrease from January and a 6.9% decline compared to one year ago.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.501 million in February. This marks an 11.2% increase from January but a 2.9% decline compared to one year ago.
Last week’s economic data was plagued by uncertainty. A brief respite in inflation pressures was overshadowed by sentiment concerns.
Every so often we hear a theory that makes sense superficially but on closer examination doesn’t add up. The most recent one is that the Trump Administration wants a recession (or at least wouldn’t mind one) because interest rates would drop, making it easier to service the national debt.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley discussed recent developments in the trade war and the impact on markets. He also dug into the latest U.S. economic data and provided an update on investor sentiment.
Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.
This morning’s retail sales report is a bit of relief. The economy, as of the end February, is not in free fall as the control group increase of 1.0% offset the same decline in January. Nevertheless, the underlying concerns that emerged over the last few days cannot be ignored.
Five of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through March 17, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.05%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.29% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 9.20%.
Nominal retail sales in February were up 0.20% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.11% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.02% MoM and up 0.38% YoY.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month as economic uncertainty, tariff threats, and elevated construction costs continue to weigh on sentiment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, down 3 points from February and the lowest level since August. The latest reading was below the 42 forecast.
Manufacturing activity dropped significantly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing March survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 25.7 points to -20.0, the lowest level since January 2024. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.9.
Markets have been overwhelmed lately by the administration’s fast-paced and, many times, highly uncertain tariff measures.
Disappointing retail sales last month added to concerns of a pullback in consumer spending in the US, while a pair of business surveys suggested growing caution.
A decade after being engulfed by a controversy that culminated in multiple enforcement actions and a regulator clampdown, these off-exchange trading platforms are touting a way to buy and sell stocks that’s even more opaque.
Gen Z is right to have negative feelings about the economy. Not only were its oldest members entering the workforce as the pandemic struck, but those in their early to mid-20s are also now bearing the brunt of a labor market that’s largely been frozen in place for the past two years.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of March 7th, the index was at 14.416, down 3.785 from the previous week, with 5 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
When breakthroughs occur, researchers get the lion’s share of the credit. But they owe a big debt of gratitude to those who collect and organize the data with which insight is manufactured.
Understanding actual inflation – instead of what the media’s narrative tells you it should be – is critical to your investment planning. It is one thing for a pundit to say this or that, but it is another to look at the actual data for yourself.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for February showed a moderate rebound last month, with headline sales rising 0.2%. Meanwhile, January's figure was revised downward to a 1.2% loss. The latest data came in weaker than the anticipated 0.6% growth in consumer spending.
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
One thing we have seen underscored in 2025 is that the bond market can change its mind very quickly, particularly as it relates to policy emanating from Washington, D.C. Following President Trump’s election win, the dominant theme in the U.S. Treasury (UST) arena was that his Administration’s policies would lead to higher budget deficits, increasing UST supply and, ultimately, higher rates for maturities like the 10-Year yield.
News headlines this week have been dominated by recession fears in the U.S., with the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 shedding value. Yet, amid this rising uncertainty, a positive story is emerging—the performance of European markets.
Markets will be laser focused on Federal Reserve policy and economic projections next week, looking for signs about where interest rates are heading.
As of Q4 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 93% since the 2009 trough.
Ben Inker and John Pease look at the economics of trade and tariffs at a theoretical level and explain why broadly applied tariffs are a needlessly economically way to achieve U.S. goals.
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
The Liberal Party of Canada has wrapped up its leadership race, with Mark Carney winning by an overwhelming margin.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and nearly one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
There has been further indication that the U.S. will underperform during a negative market, according to DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of February, the labor force participation rate is at 62.4%, down from 62.6% the previous month and the lowest level since January 2023.
There have been few winning strategies to seek refuge in as the stock rout sparked by President Donald Trump’s start-stop tariff war drags on for a third week.
After a search for a new chief executive officer that lasted more than three months, Intel Corp. has decided Lip-Bu Tan is the best choice to salvage the company’s future. He’ll take up the most difficult job in the chip business, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday evening.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for February. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 151,000.
Wholesale inflation eased significantly in February, slowing more than expected. The producer price index for final demand was flat month-over-month, down from 0.6% in January and lower than the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 3.2%, down from 3.7% in January and below the 3.3% forecast.
The risk of a recession in the U.S. is not zero. This is particularly true as the current Administration tackles Government bloat and implements tariffs. However, before we discuss why the risk of a recession could increase, it is crucial to remember the 2022 experience.
Germany is newly motivated to reconsider its fiscal restraint.
In a world of rich valuations and heightened geopolitical uncertainties, we believe Japanese equities are well positioned to deliver attractive returns.
Recent US stock weakness may be related to a downturn in US economic data and headline shocks related to tariffs.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for February puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.82%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War. Additionally, inflation now sits below the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.93%.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation cooled for the first time in five months in February. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.8% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.9% growth. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, cooling to 3.1% year-over-year.
If you have ever filed a homeowners insurance claim, you know it can feel more like an endurance test than a straightforward process. While insurers are legally required to honor valid claims, they have strong financial incentives to delay, underpay, or deny them whenever possible.
Treasuries fell despite evidence of cooler-than-expected US inflation as the data ignited a rebound in stock prices that eroded demand for bonds.
President Donald Trump is attempting the most sweeping transformation of government and policy in decades. The White House is moving furiously to slash spending, expand tariffs, repeal regulations and rewrite tax rules.
As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP.
Global investment themes are shifting toward infrastructure, cybersecurity and energy expansion as demand outpaces supply in key sectors.
Economic growth, earnings performance, and rising fiscal spending coupled with "America First" policies are driving international stock markets.
Six of the nine indexes on our emerging markets watch list have posted gains through March 10, 2025. Russia's MOEX is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 11.1%. Chile's IPSA is in second with a year to date gain of 10.1% while South Korea's KOSPI is in third with a year to date gain of 8.84%.
When clients are scared, you want to be there for them and respond to their concerns. However, if you don’t pause from time-to-time to make sure you are responding in the most effective ways, you will find yourself continually frustrated and even possibly resentful of the interruption.
As more advisors look to private equity as an effective means of diversifying their clients’ portfolios and providing a fertile source of uncorrelated alpha, the middle market merits a closer look.
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that job openings rose more than expected in January, while hiring and quits also edged higher. Vacancies increased to 7.740 million, up from December's downwardly revised 7.508 million. The January figure came in above the expected 7.650 million.
The virtue economy, the only bubble I have ever called, has now completely burst.
US Treasuries surged and investors boosted their bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts Monday as fear of a economic slowdown took hold across US markets.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a second straight month, falling to 100.7 in February. While optimism among small business owners moderated last month, uncertainty spiked to its second highest reading of all time.
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
Trade policy clarity is a long way off.
Last week brought another wave of volatility to the markets, with investors grappling with mixed economic signals, geopolitical developments, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
Market Indicators
Fed Watch: Let’s Just Wait and See
For the second meeting in a row, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%–4.50%.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 21, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 21, 2025 at 4.25%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.94% and the 30-year note ended at 4.59%.
Don’t Look to the Fed for the Answer to Stagflation
The Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was right — but easy to misinterpret.
Fed Holds Steady, Cites 'Elevated Uncertainty'
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady and signaled two rate cuts this year, despite expecting inflation to remain elevated.
Interest Rate Cuts Remain Likely in 2025
Despite the increase in policy uncertainty, the Federal Reserve held its forecast steady at the March FOMC meeting with two rate cuts projected in 2025.
Uncertain
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, but downgraded the outlook for economic growth in the year ahead. Policy changes in Washington, looming tariffs, and a cautious consumer have made “uncertainty” the new favorite word in the Fed’s vocabulary.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Values Hit Lowest Level Since May 2021
In February, home values rose for the 23rd consecutive month, reaching a new all-time high, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for the 10th straight month, hitting their lowest level since May 2021.
The Road to Exchange: Featuring Jennifer Morgan, CEO and Founder Connective Communication, LLC
The Exchange Conference starts this weekend. The latest Road to Exchange video features keynote Jennifer Morgan, CEO & founder of Connective Communication LLC. VettaFi Senior Industry Analyst Kirsten Chang interviewed Morgan about the upcoming conference.
The Fed's Financial Accounts: What Are Uncle Sam's Largest Assets?
When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?
Existing Home Sales Rebound 4.2% in February
Existing home sales rebounded in February with their largest monthly increase in a year. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 4.2% from January, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million units in February.
The Student Lending Mess Needs to Be Fixed
After years of poor decision-making, the federal government’s $1.64 trillion student loan program is in critical condition. Congress needs to stanch the bleeding — and give serious thought to overhauling this flawed system for the longer term.
The Federal Reserve Is Driving Blind
On the predictable side, the Fed kept policy rates in a range of 4.25%-4.5%, and the rate-setting committee pledged to slow the pace at which it’s allowing securities to roll off its balance sheet.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Continued to Expand in March
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed continued expansion though activity declined. In March, the index fell to 12.5 from 18.1 in February, the second consecutive monthly drop. The latest reading was higher than the forecast of 8.8.
Unemployment Claims Up 2K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending March 15th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 223,000. This represents an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 224,000 forecast.
Stupidity And The 5-Laws Not To Follow
Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.”
From the Beltway to Main St.: Certain Uncertainty
In the understatement of 2025 thus far, the headlines emanating from Washington, D.C., have been fast and furious. Whether they be tariff-related, involving federal government cuts or geopolitical in nature, there has been a headline for many facets that investors could think of.
A Future Uncertain: Recession Coming?
Recession fears have risen sharply of late as economic soft data have rolled over, upping the risk that hard data start to catch down.
Can European Equities Regain Footing amid Global Adversity?
European equities have started 2025 on a positive note. Several factors could help support the market overcome challenging conditions.
Your Ship Finally Came In. Now What?
Receiving an unexpected gift or inheritance is something that people may dream about. Our Bill Cass discusses some key considerations if that dream becomes reality and you do receive a financial windfall.
Tactical Rules Turn More Bullish
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on February 4, equity markets have been under pressure as the S&P 500 has retraced more than 23% of the rally that started October 2023.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: March 19, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its second meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
The Painful Experience of Being Coached
I’ve spent much of my career coaching and providing learning opportunities for those professionals who want to improve. This week I had an experience that moved me to write a column about the difficulty in opening one’s self up to being willing to be coached, and of making behavioral change.
Investors Look for Fed’s Take on Growth After US Bond Rally
Bond investors will look for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to hit just the right notes in his Wednesday remarks to keep up the momentum behind a rally in the $29 trillion Treasury market.
China Stimulus: Better Luck Next Year
Two Sessions, or Lianghui, is the popular name for the annual meeting of China’s top legislative and consultative bodies. These gatherings are closely watched by overseas observers as they provide key insight into China’s political landscape, economic priorities and overall policy direction.
Doing More With the Same: The Power of OCIO
I recently celebrated another trip around the sun, which meant I couldn’t let the occasion pass without enjoying some birthday cake.
The Big Four Recession Indicators
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
Gasoline Prices Down for Fourth Straight Week
Gas prices were down for a fourth straight week, hitting their lowest level in two months. As of March 17th, the price of regular and premium gas were down 1 and 2 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.373, up 2.0% from last week.
Margin Debt Falls for First Time in Six Months in February
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through February. The latest debt level is at $918.144 billion, just below its record high from January. Margin debt was down 2.0% month-over-month (MoM) and up 23.6% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, the debt level was down 2.5% MoM and up 20.2% YoY.
Investment Bankers Finally Start to Take Trump Literally
Banks needed the right version of Donald Trump to justify their high-flying stock prices. They got the wrong one. The US president’s chaotic and aggressive performance during his first few weeks in the White House has shocked companies, put investment plans and deals on hold and threatens to drag the economy into recession.
Direct Job Switches Near Four-Year Low in Sign of Weak US Market
The share of US workers making a direct transition from one employer to another has slid near a four-year low, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, pointing to a weakening labor market.
Empowering Clients Through Financial Guidance
I often encounter individuals struggling with financial stress – whether it's saving for retirement, building an emergency fund, or paying down debt. To better understand these concerns, Barnum conducted a comprehensive study on the financial wellness of working Americans.
Tariffs and the Stock Market: Resist Panic, Reach for Patience
There’s nothing like a good sale to get people excited—unless that sale happens in the stock market. Instead of celebrating a chance to buy at a discount, investors panic, dump stocks, and brace for economic doom.
Building Permits Fall 1.2% in February
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits fell for a third straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.456 million in February. This marks a 1.2% decrease from January and a 6.9% decline compared to one year ago.
Housing Starts Jump 11.2% in February
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.501 million in February. This marks an 11.2% increase from January but a 2.9% decline compared to one year ago.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Relief Tempered by Sentiment Concerns
Last week’s economic data was plagued by uncertainty. A brief respite in inflation pressures was overshadowed by sentiment concerns.
A Recession Wouldn't Help the Budget
Every so often we hear a theory that makes sense superficially but on closer examination doesn’t add up. The most recent one is that the Trump Administration wants a recession (or at least wouldn’t mind one) because interest rates would drop, making it easier to service the national debt.
Volatility Returns With a Vengeance
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley discussed recent developments in the trade war and the impact on markets. He also dug into the latest U.S. economic data and provided an update on investor sentiment.
Schwab Market Perspective: Recession Risk Rising?
Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.
Tariffs Shake Markets as Sentiment Plummets
This morning’s retail sales report is a bit of relief. The economy, as of the end February, is not in free fall as the control group increase of 1.0% offset the same decline in January. Nevertheless, the underlying concerns that emerged over the last few days cannot be ignored.
World Markets Watchlist: March 17, 2025
Five of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through March 17, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 23.05%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.29% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 9.20%.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Flat in February
Nominal retail sales in February were up 0.20% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.11% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.02% MoM and up 0.38% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Uncertainty Drags Builder Confidence to 7-Month Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month as economic uncertainty, tariff threats, and elevated construction costs continue to weigh on sentiment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, down 3 points from February and the lowest level since August. The latest reading was below the 42 forecast.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Dropped Significantly in March
Manufacturing activity dropped significantly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing March survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 25.7 points to -20.0, the lowest level since January 2024. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.9.
Tariffs Noise Hides Positive Inflation Developments
Markets have been overwhelmed lately by the administration’s fast-paced and, many times, highly uncertain tariff measures.
Disappointing Retail Sales Add to Concerns About US Outlook
Disappointing retail sales last month added to concerns of a pullback in consumer spending in the US, while a pair of business surveys suggested growing caution.
Darker Than a Dark Pool? Welcome to Wall Street’s ‘Private Rooms’
A decade after being engulfed by a controversy that culminated in multiple enforcement actions and a regulator clampdown, these off-exchange trading platforms are touting a way to buy and sell stocks that’s even more opaque.
Gen Z’s Job Recession Needs Urgent Attention
Gen Z is right to have negative feelings about the economy. Not only were its oldest members entering the workforce as the pandemic struck, but those in their early to mid-20s are also now bearing the brunt of a labor market that’s largely been frozen in place for the past two years.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of March 7th, the index was at 14.416, down 3.785 from the previous week, with 5 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Sustaining Economic Statistics
When breakthroughs occur, researchers get the lion’s share of the credit. But they owe a big debt of gratitude to those who collect and organize the data with which insight is manufactured.
The Inflationista Illuminati
Understanding actual inflation – instead of what the media’s narrative tells you it should be – is critical to your investment planning. It is one thing for a pundit to say this or that, but it is another to look at the actual data for yourself.
Retail Sales Rise 0.2% in February, Weaker Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for February showed a moderate rebound last month, with headline sales rising 0.2%. Meanwhile, January's figure was revised downward to a 1.2% loss. The latest data came in weaker than the anticipated 0.6% growth in consumer spending.
Gold Smashes Through $3,000 as Recession Fears Mount
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
Discounting the D.C. Effect in the Bond Market
One thing we have seen underscored in 2025 is that the bond market can change its mind very quickly, particularly as it relates to policy emanating from Washington, D.C. Following President Trump’s election win, the dominant theme in the U.S. Treasury (UST) arena was that his Administration’s policies would lead to higher budget deficits, increasing UST supply and, ultimately, higher rates for maturities like the 10-Year yield.
Europe – A Bright Spot Amid Market Uncertainty
News headlines this week have been dominated by recession fears in the U.S., with the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 shedding value. Yet, amid this rising uncertainty, a positive story is emerging—the performance of European markets.
Latest Inflation Readings Put the Federal Reserve in a Bind
Markets will be laser focused on Federal Reserve policy and economic projections next week, looking for signs about where interest rates are heading.
Household Net Worth Q4 2024: The "Real" Story
As of Q4 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 93% since the 2009 trough.
Trade: The Most Beautiful Word in the Dictionary
Ben Inker and John Pease look at the economics of trade and tariffs at a theoretical level and explain why broadly applied tariffs are a needlessly economically way to achieve U.S. goals.
Quality Is On Sale
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
Election Debrief: Why the Era of Uncertainty May Continue in Canada
The Liberal Party of Canada has wrapped up its leadership race, with Mark Carney winning by an overwhelming margin.
Baby Boomer Employment Through the Decades
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Employment Trends for the 50+ Workforce: February 2025
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and nearly one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
Gundlach: U.S. Stocks Will Underperform in Recession as Odds Reach 60%
There has been further indication that the U.S. will underperform during a negative market, according to DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach.
Long-Term Employment Trends by Age and Gender: February 2025
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of February, the labor force participation rate is at 62.4%, down from 62.6% the previous month and the lowest level since January 2023.
Stagflation Trade Emerges as Rare Winner in US Stock Market Rout
There have been few winning strategies to seek refuge in as the stock rout sparked by President Donald Trump’s start-stop tariff war drags on for a third week.
Lip-Bu Tan’s ‘New Intel’ Is the Last Throw of the Dice
After a search for a new chief executive officer that lasted more than three months, Intel Corp. has decided Lip-Bu Tan is the best choice to salvage the company’s future. He’ll take up the most difficult job in the chip business, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday evening.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: February 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for February. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 151,000.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Eased Significantly in February
Wholesale inflation eased significantly in February, slowing more than expected. The producer price index for final demand was flat month-over-month, down from 0.6% in January and lower than the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 3.2%, down from 3.7% in January and below the 3.3% forecast.
The Risk Of A Recession Isn’t Zero
The risk of a recession in the U.S. is not zero. This is particularly true as the current Administration tackles Government bloat and implements tariffs. However, before we discuss why the risk of a recession could increase, it is crucial to remember the 2022 experience.
Germany’s New Deal
Germany is newly motivated to reconsider its fiscal restraint.
Three Reasons We’re Overweight Japanese Equities
In a world of rich valuations and heightened geopolitical uncertainties, we believe Japanese equities are well positioned to deliver attractive returns.
Data Determination vs. Headline ‘Hell’: Making Sense of the US Market’s Crosscurrents
Recent US stock weakness may be related to a downturn in US economic data and headline shocks related to tariffs.
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for February puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.82%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War. Additionally, inflation now sits below the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.93%.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: February 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Cools to 2.8% in February
Inflation cooled for the first time in five months in February. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.8% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.9% growth. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, cooling to 3.1% year-over-year.
How to Get Results on Homeowner Insurance Claims
If you have ever filed a homeowners insurance claim, you know it can feel more like an endurance test than a straightforward process. While insurers are legally required to honor valid claims, they have strong financial incentives to delay, underpay, or deny them whenever possible.
US Bonds Rebuff Cooler Inflation as Stock Rally Saps Demand
Treasuries fell despite evidence of cooler-than-expected US inflation as the data ignited a rebound in stock prices that eroded demand for bonds.
There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets
President Donald Trump is attempting the most sweeping transformation of government and policy in decades. The White House is moving furiously to slash spending, expand tariffs, repeal regulations and rewrite tax rules.
All Eyes on the Consumer: Is the Economic Engine Sputtering?
As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP.
From AI to Infrastructure: The 10 Investment Themes Defining the Next Five Years
Global investment themes are shifting toward infrastructure, cybersecurity and energy expansion as demand outpaces supply in key sectors.
Making International Great Again?
Economic growth, earnings performance, and rising fiscal spending coupled with "America First" policies are driving international stock markets.
Emerging Markets Watchlist: March 10, 2025
Six of the nine indexes on our emerging markets watch list have posted gains through March 10, 2025. Russia's MOEX is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 11.1%. Chile's IPSA is in second with a year to date gain of 10.1% while South Korea's KOSPI is in third with a year to date gain of 8.84%.
Taking Care of Yourself – and Your Clients – When Markets Are Volatile
When clients are scared, you want to be there for them and respond to their concerns. However, if you don’t pause from time-to-time to make sure you are responding in the most effective ways, you will find yourself continually frustrated and even possibly resentful of the interruption.
Unlock Alpha in Mid-Market Private Equity
As more advisors look to private equity as an effective means of diversifying their clients’ portfolios and providing a fertile source of uncorrelated alpha, the middle market merits a closer look.
Job Openings Rise More Than Expected in January
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that job openings rose more than expected in January, while hiring and quits also edged higher. Vacancies increased to 7.740 million, up from December's downwardly revised 7.508 million. The January figure came in above the expected 7.650 million.
Shareholder Capitalism Is Back
The virtue economy, the only bubble I have ever called, has now completely burst.
US Bonds Rose as Recession Angst Fuels Haven Demand
US Treasuries surged and investors boosted their bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts Monday as fear of a economic slowdown took hold across US markets.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Uncertainty is High and Rising
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a second straight month, falling to 100.7 in February. While optimism among small business owners moderated last month, uncertainty spiked to its second highest reading of all time.
Despite Recent Volatility, We Maintain Our Constructive Outlook
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
A Frenzied Week for Tariffs
Trade policy clarity is a long way off.
Markets Struggle for Direction as Uncertainty Mounts
Last week brought another wave of volatility to the markets, with investors grappling with mixed economic signals, geopolitical developments, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty.