Outlooks

As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.

Natural disasters test—but don’t break—municipalities’ resilience.

The Northern Trust Economics team shares an outlook for U.S. growth, inflation, employment and interest rates.

For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, the VettaFi writers debate the case for using sector ETFs to make bets on the new market regime.

Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.

Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.

Economic data and policies out of China are typically delayed until mid-March. Stock volatility may be prevalent until initiatives are clarified after the Lunar New Year.

The strong performance of large-cap stocks over the past decade has left the market exceptionally top-heavy. By some measures, stock market capitalization has never been more concentrated among a handful of large stocks as today.

US equities had a stellar 2024, with the S&P 500 up 25%, but the year ended on a softer note. The sharp rise in bond yields has caught the market's eye

The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.

Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.

The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.

On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.

We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.

Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills looks at how several of the top market-relevant Washington DC issues could play out in 2025.

Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.

We are pro-risk, with the biggest overweight in U.S. stocks, yet eye three areas that could spur a view change.

If you’re going to remember one important fact about the housing market, it’s that with the brief exception of COVID, the US has consistently built too few homes almost every year since the housing bust got rough in 2007.

Rough times are coming, yes, but I think we have at least 12 good months before the worst gets here. Let’s look at some of the reasons why things should be okay and then look at some of the potential problems.

After another resilient year for the US economy, we look ahead to the new year.

Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes break down the factors likely to impact economic growth, inflation and interest rates.

U.S. equities closed 2024 on top and U.S. growth took back leadership from U.S. value.

Yields may trade in a wide range as markets work through issues in the new year. Navigating volatility may mean capturing higher nominal and real yields over the longer term.

In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.

Two key components drive the shape of the yield curve: expectations for the short-term interest rate and expectations for the term premium.

Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.

The question for investors will be to what degree US outperformance will extend to the financial markets.

On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.

Stocks are coming off another banner year, but strength has bred a frothy sentiment environment, which continues to loom as a risk for likely coming volatility.

Three interconnected lessons from 2024 help shape our 2025 outlook.

2024 was about as good as it gets in the equity markets – with the BGEP up 31% and the broader market as a whole posting double digit gains. Underneath the surface, we believe that there are three main drivers of the year’s solid returns. We discuss them below in our market review and outlook.

Stocks rallied in 2024, delivering a second consecutive year of gains exceeding 20%, as investors embraced cooling inflation, falling interest rates and the prospect of lower corporate taxes under a second Trump administration.

Most people don’t pay much attention to the political process, either local or federal. This year I think it is something we should all be paying attention to as it might affect our various lives.

European bond markets are climbing a mountain of worry. Despite the risks, history suggests a positive outcome.

Continuing last year's trend, our 2025 outlook shows fixed income benefiting from high rates, while equities face a narrowing edge over risk-free investments.

Political uncertainty and volatility create fertile ground for active investors to find companies that can successfully navigate a new era.

Gain insights into 2025’s top tech trends and market opportunities, and what experienced investors should consider for smart tech investments.

The year ahead may present challenges as markets and the economy look to maintain momentum.

Continued volatility, falling yields, and other expectations for the year ahead, plus seven strategies to take advantage.

December's market activity highlights the need for caution in the near term.

Investors continue to enjoy the bull market but remain somewhat nervous about valuation. Policy uncertainty is higher than usual, in part because there are so many policy changes at the same time.

I expect three major innovation cycles to dramatically affect our world in the next decade, with impacts comparable to steam engines, electricity, automobiles, and even the internet. Every new invention helps us explore even further.

I never thought someone would label me a “Permabull.” This is particularly true of the numerous articles I wrote over the years about the risks of excess valuations, monetary interventions, and artificially suppressed interest rates.

We prefer equities over fixed income, in particular U.S. equities as the outlook for the U.S. economy is solid and promising.