The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Nvidia Corp. billionaire boss Jensen Huang, clad in his signature leather jacket, has been crisscrossing European capitals and sharing the stage with the likes of Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron as he pitches “sovereign” artificial intelligence, a vision of new data centers offering essential compute power within national borders rather than via dominant tech firms from abroad.
Not much seems to faze the stock market these days even as risks abound, from war in the Middle East, to trade tensions, to slowing growth. But Wall Street’s biggest fear arrives today when the Federal Reserve meeting ends and Chair Jerome Powell explains the central bank’s outlook.
For more than two years, conversations about the biggest, most important technology companies have revolved around the same seven stocks. Now, some on Wall Street are making the case that Broadcom Inc. should be part of that discussion.
Many small deals have done through, including ones from overseas, and an active calendar of corporate shareholder meetings could offer fresh insights into capital plans.
In this article, we’ll explore how crypto index ETFs are structured, how they differ from single-asset products, and how financial professionals can incorporate them into diversified portfolios with clear goals around sizing, suitability, and risk management.
The question isn’t whether robots will transform global labor markets. It’s how quickly the transformation will unfold. This transformation presents both unprecedented challenges and remarkable opportunities.
What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.
The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room.
The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.
Smart beta strategies have endured a prolonged stretch of disappointing results, falling short of investor expectations. This article explores the underlying causes of that performance and outlines why the conditions ahead could be more favorable.
The United States consumes a large share of its GDP; China, not so much. The result is Yin and Yang. On net, China produces and the US consumes.
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.
A growing body of evidence suggests the differences between private and public equity may be more a matter of perception than reality.
The calm before the storm is here – and the Fed knows it won’t last. This week’s Fed meeting is expected to be relatively straightforward.
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. named Mark O’Donovan head of its international consumer bank, giving him oversight of the firm’s existing consumer offering in the UK, planned launch in Germany and stake in Brazil’s C6 Bank.
President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a new trade agreement with China is the kind of headline that gives markets a sense of relief. As I overheard this week at Wealth Management’s EDGE conference, which I attended in Boca Raton, Florida, we may have dodged a recession.
Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 6.8 points to -16.0. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -5.9.
Blackstone Inc. hired Joseph Cassanelli, a banker who drove major Wall Street deals, as the private equity firm prepares to invest more in banks and insurers.
Rampant uncertainty and ongoing market volatility in 2025 have done little to dampen the ETF industry, with innovative launches ongoing.
Market indexes can be a useful barometer of long-term performance. But the investment opportunity set need not start and end there.
Tariff policy has clouded expectations for the second half of the year, but there are ways to navigate through the fog.
In part one of our new series, AI Alpha, we explored the sweeping potential of artificial intelligence (AI) as a transformative force.
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
Corporate America is regaining its appetite for risk as expectations build around Donald Trump’s push for deregulation and tax cuts, according to ARK Investment Management founder Cathie Wood.
Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
Despite inflation worries, fiscal deficit concerns, and continued geopolitical conflict, equity markets posted strong returns in May on the back of easing tariff tensions, lower probability of recession, and better than expected US Q1 earnings.
A new culture of reform at Japanese companies offers exciting potential for equity investors.
In the current land of uncertainty the markets and investors find themselves in, the monthly Employment Situation report is ‘must-see TV’ and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
Wall Street analyst outlooks are typically bullish. If you aggregate every price target on every S&P 500 Index company and weight them to match the index, it’s exceedingly rare for the overall number to fall.
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
Underlying US inflation rose in May by less than forecast for the fourth month in a row, suggesting companies are largely holding back on passing higher tariff costs through to consumers.
Transitioning away from your current firm is always a big step, but leaving a non-Broker Protocol firm comes with unique complexities — and potential legal pitfalls — if you're not fully prepared.
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
Advisors looking to add or enhance existing gold exposures in their portfolio have a range of strategies to consider within the ETF vehicle.
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
In recent years, “buying the dip“ and more vulgar variations have often been equated to “dumb money” or retail investors, who are presumed to always make a mistake. However, as investors, we need to rethink how we view “buying the dip” because the whole goal of investing is to “buy low and sell high.”
Diversification of portfolios using international equities can reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, especially given recent geopolitical shifts that decrease correlations between U.S. and international markets. Despite some investor skepticism, and as we discuss below, the benefits of international diversification can be significant and should be considered in investment strategies.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation will do a comprehensive analysis of Autoliv Inc (ALV), the world’s largest automotive safety supplier.
Virtually all the marketing activities are exactly what other advisors are doing as well. Never follow the crowd.
A college degree may be a milestone that represents one possible career path. But it’s not your only route toward a future that is both financially sound and deeply fulfilling.
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
Stablecoins are a special flavor of cryptocurrency. Unlike Bitcoin or countless wildly traded memecoins, whose values rise and fall based on market moods, the most popular versions of these digital tokens are supposed to always be worth $1 each.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
After falling 0.7% in April, the S&P 500 gained 6.3% last month, marking the index’s best May return since 1990 and its best monthly return since November 2023 (see the chart).
Last week’s employment report was an important stabilizer for the markets. After concerning revisions and weak ADP numbers raised recession alarms, Friday’s payrolls print calmed fears on labor market deterioration.
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Research trips are an integral component of our active, fundamental investment process. Our investment teams meet with different companies, attend conferences, and travel to new markets around the world, gaining insights for our clients and a deeper understanding of potential investments.
Rebounding demand from ETF investors and resilient buying from central banks and Asia retail have propelled gold prices to fresh records north of US$3,000/oz. Find out why we believe there is more room to run.
Last week, the labor market took center stage, presenting a nuanced picture of continued resilience alongside subtle signs of softening.
Iron and steel mills employ about 85,700 people in the US. That’s less than half as many as in 1990 but slightly more than in 2016 and 2017.
The federal government, financial markets and most Americans are all in a state of denial about interest rates.
Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.
Kristofer Kraus, portfolio manager and co-lead of PIMCO’s asset-based finance business, charts the nuances behind the overall resilience of U.S. consumers – and explains how these insights shape lending and investment strategies.
Given the large pool of options available to fixed income investors in the bond market, the ideal option given the current economic uncertainty is still Treasuries. With that, Vanguard has three options worthy of consideration for any portfolio.
With tariffs toggling on and off and a major tax bill still in flux, investors should brace for headline-driven volatility through July, particularly around trade and fiscal policy.
Since 2019 and the establishment of the ETF Rule, traditional active managers, armed with decades of expertise, have flocked to ETFs.
In the last three months tariff news has whipped financial markets around remarkably in response to President Trump’s ever changing tariff policies. The most pronounced reactions were concentrated in the US stock market.
Closed-end funds can offer stable income streams, but also have some benefits over ETFs when it comes to fund structure.
On the trade front, investor uncertainty eased for a short time as President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs seemed to lose traction. Several key developments contributed, including a 90-day tariff pause with China, the signing of a US-UK trade agreement and progress on negotiations with other partners, including Europe.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 49.9—below the forecast of 52.0. This marks the first contraction for the index since June 2024.
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 53.7, above the 52.3 forecast. The reading marks the 28th consecutive month of expansion and was a noticeable pickup from April's 17-month low.
Global equities hit a record high for the first time since February, as signs of a resilient US economy overshadowed uncertainty around trade negotiations.
A U.S. trade court has blocked most of the Trump administration's "reciprocal" tariffs, but the legal battle will continue. Here's what investors should know.
Nvidia Corp. shares have staged a $1 trillion rebound in two months — and investors are betting the rally has further to go as fears about the chipmaker give way to optimism.
f you are wondering why the S&P 500 Index has held up so well in the past two months, look no further than the technology and communications sectors, which collectively account for nearly half of the index by weighting.
New research connects intensifying natural perils to their future implications for asset classes.
As investors grapple with nagging macro uncertainty, market volatility’s likely to continue. But we also see reasons for optimism — and new opportunities.
With the private equity market plagued by uncertainty and volatility, it's more important ever to locate compelling long-term opportunities.
Last week's economic data presented a mixed but generally more positive outlook. Inflation continued its downward trend in April.
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In May, the MCSI was unchanged at 52.2, ending its four-month streak of declines. Meanwhile, the CCI jumped to 98.0, its largest monthly increase in over four years.
U.S. manufacturing growth picked up in May, but tariffs and trade policy continued to dominate the sector's landscape. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fifth straight month in May at 52.0. The latest reading was lower than the 52.3 forecast.
Today I’m going to highlight some speakers who added an equity market perspective to their big-picture views. Getting both right would be much easier if more investors behaved rationally. Alas, they don’t, which is why stock prices do incomprehensible things. Fortunately, you can succeed without catching every twist and turn.
While headlines scream about the latest deal or tariff suspension, Maharrey argues that investors are dangerously distracted from the real threat: America’s exploding national debt and the systemic consequences that follow.
With current home sales at historical lows and mortgage rates hovering between 6% and 7%, homeowners who are locked into previously secured low-interest mortgages remain hesitant to sell. In fact, existing home sales have reached depressed levels unseen in three to four decades.
Corporate credit spreads, whether investment grade or high yield, can often hint at hiccups in the stock market and the economy. But they tend to keep a low profile.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in April and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
Emerging markets debt held its ground in the first quarter, but staying ahead means staying selective. We’re reassessing positioning across high-, low-, and frontier-beta currencies and rates as trade tensions and U.S. policy inject fresh uncertainty.
Many investors have underweighted high yield bond ETF strategies in recent years, satisfied with the opportunities found in other segments of the fixed income market.
The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, recently announced he will be stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.
The long-term bearish case for the dollar remained intact after a court ruled that the vast majority of President Donald Trump’s global trade tariffs are illegal, amplifying uncertainty over the US economic outlook.
Outlooks
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: June 18, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Nvidia’s ‘Sovereign’ AI Could Win a Prize for Irony
Nvidia Corp. billionaire boss Jensen Huang, clad in his signature leather jacket, has been crisscrossing European capitals and sharing the stage with the likes of Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron as he pitches “sovereign” artificial intelligence, a vision of new data centers offering essential compute power within national borders rather than via dominant tech firms from abroad.
Wall Street Fears Hawkish Fed Will Trigger Stock Market Selloff
Not much seems to faze the stock market these days even as risks abound, from war in the Middle East, to trade tensions, to slowing growth. But Wall Street’s biggest fear arrives today when the Federal Reserve meeting ends and Chair Jerome Powell explains the central bank’s outlook.
Broadcom’s 340% Rally Has Wall Street Debating If It's Magnificent Seven Material
For more than two years, conversations about the biggest, most important technology companies have revolved around the same seven stocks. Now, some on Wall Street are making the case that Broadcom Inc. should be part of that discussion.
M&A Watch: A String of Hot IPOs Could Spark Second-Half Dealmaking
Many small deals have done through, including ones from overseas, and an active calendar of corporate shareholder meetings could offer fresh insights into capital plans.
Crypto Index ETFs, Explained for Financial Professionals
In this article, we’ll explore how crypto index ETFs are structured, how they differ from single-asset products, and how financial professionals can incorporate them into diversified portfolios with clear goals around sizing, suitability, and risk management.
Investment Opportunities as AI, Robots Transform Labor
The question isn’t whether robots will transform global labor markets. It’s how quickly the transformation will unfold. This transformation presents both unprecedented challenges and remarkable opportunities.
Supply Chain Messages About the Trade War
What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.
2025 Midyear Outlook: Where the Economy and Markets Go From Here
The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room.
The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market
The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.
How Can “Smart Beta” Go Horribly Right?
Smart beta strategies have endured a prolonged stretch of disappointing results, falling short of investor expectations. This article explores the underlying causes of that performance and outlines why the conditions ahead could be more favorable.
Dueling Economies
The United States consumes a large share of its GDP; China, not so much. The result is Yin and Yang. On net, China produces and the US consumes.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Fall 1.0% in May
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Drops to 2.5-Year Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
Stocks Rally in May as Tariff Fears Subside; Long Yields Move Higher
Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.
Public Equity May Resemble Private Equity More Than Investors Realize
A growing body of evidence suggests the differences between private and public equity may be more a matter of perception than reality.
Early Signs of Economic Weakness are Starting to Emerge
The calm before the storm is here – and the Fed knows it won’t last. This week’s Fed meeting is expected to be relatively straightforward.
It’s Not About Trump
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
JPMorgan Names O’Donovan Head of International Consumer Bank
JPMorgan Chase & Co. named Mark O’Donovan head of its international consumer bank, giving him oversight of the firm’s existing consumer offering in the UK, planned launch in Germany and stake in Brazil’s C6 Bank.
Trump’s Trade Deal with China Is a Tailwind for Global Shipping
President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a new trade agreement with China is the kind of headline that gives markets a sense of relief. As I overheard this week at Wealth Management’s EDGE conference, which I attended in Boca Raton, Florida, we may have dodged a recession.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Continued to Decline in June
Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 6.8 points to -16.0. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -5.9.
Blackstone Taps Ex-Lazard Top Dealmaker, Aims to Back More Banks
Blackstone Inc. hired Joseph Cassanelli, a banker who drove major Wall Street deals, as the private equity firm prepares to invest more in banks and insurers.
3 New ETFs That Reflect Emerging 2025 Market Trends
Rampant uncertainty and ongoing market volatility in 2025 have done little to dampen the ETF industry, with innovative launches ongoing.
Investing Beyond Benchmarks: The Case for Unconstrained Equities
Market indexes can be a useful barometer of long-term performance. But the investment opportunity set need not start and end there.
Schwab Market Perspective: 2025 Mid-Year Outlook
Tariff policy has clouded expectations for the second half of the year, but there are ways to navigate through the fog.
AI: The Challenges for Investors
In part one of our new series, AI Alpha, we explored the sweeping potential of artificial intelligence (AI) as a transformative force.
Fixed Income Outlook: A Not-so-Random Walk
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
What Closed-End Funds Could Offer Amid Uncertain Times
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
Cathie Wood Says Trump Era Is Reviving Corporate Risk Appetite
Corporate America is regaining its appetite for risk as expectations build around Donald Trump’s push for deregulation and tax cuts, according to ARK Investment Management founder Cathie Wood.
"Yen-Carry" Anniversary Nears, but Worries Fade
Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.
Equities Outlook: Era of Rapid Change Creates Opportunities
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
Cautious Optimism: Shift Exposure, Stay Balanced
Despite inflation worries, fiscal deficit concerns, and continued geopolitical conflict, equity markets posted strong returns in May on the back of easing tariff tensions, lower probability of recession, and better than expected US Q1 earnings.
Japan’s Corporate Reforms Create a Catalyst for Equity Returns
A new culture of reform at Japanese companies offers exciting potential for equity investors.
The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same
In the current land of uncertainty the markets and investors find themselves in, the monthly Employment Situation report is ‘must-see TV’ and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.
The Fragmentation Era
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
Equity Analysts Are Over Liberation Day Tariffs
Wall Street analyst outlooks are typically bullish. If you aggregate every price target on every S&P 500 Index company and weight them to match the index, it’s exceedingly rare for the overall number to fall.
US Stocks Waffle as Traders Weigh US-China Trade Progress
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
US Core Inflation Rises Less Than Forecast for Fourth Month
Underlying US inflation rose in May by less than forecast for the fourth month in a row, suggesting companies are largely holding back on passing higher tariff costs through to consumers.
Navigating a Non-Protocol Transition: What Every Advisor Needs to Know Before Making a Move From a Captive Firm or Broker-Dealer
Transitioning away from your current firm is always a big step, but leaving a non-Broker Protocol firm comes with unique complexities — and potential legal pitfalls — if you're not fully prepared.
A Focus on Fundamentals
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
3 Different Gold ETF Strategies for the Second Half
Advisors looking to add or enhance existing gold exposures in their portfolio have a range of strategies to consider within the ETF vehicle.
What's the 10-Year Outlook for Major Asset Classes?
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
“Buying The Dip” – Here’s A Technical Way To Do It
In recent years, “buying the dip“ and more vulgar variations have often been equated to “dumb money” or retail investors, who are presumed to always make a mistake. However, as investors, we need to rethink how we view “buying the dip” because the whole goal of investing is to “buy low and sell high.”
Going Abroad for a Free Lunch
Diversification of portfolios using international equities can reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, especially given recent geopolitical shifts that decrease correlations between U.S. and international markets. Despite some investor skepticism, and as we discuss below, the benefits of international diversification can be significant and should be considered in investment strategies.
Secure Returns: Investing in the World’s Largest Automotive Safety Supplier for Income and Growth
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation will do a comprehensive analysis of Autoliv Inc (ALV), the world’s largest automotive safety supplier.
Stop Being One of Many
Virtually all the marketing activities are exactly what other advisors are doing as well. Never follow the crowd.
To Graduates: Skilled Trades Can Be a Practical Path to Success
A college degree may be a milestone that represents one possible career path. But it’s not your only route toward a future that is both financially sound and deeply fulfilling.
What's Holding Back Small Caps?
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
Stablecoins Bring Crypto to the Mainstream. What Could Go Wrong?
Stablecoins are a special flavor of cryptocurrency. Unlike Bitcoin or countless wildly traded memecoins, whose values rise and fall based on market moods, the most popular versions of these digital tokens are supposed to always be worth $1 each.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Recovered Slightly in May
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
Mid-Year Outlook: International Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Stocks Bloom In May
After falling 0.7% in April, the S&P 500 gained 6.3% last month, marking the index’s best May return since 1990 and its best monthly return since November 2023 (see the chart).
Jobs Report Yields Sigh of Relief
Last week’s employment report was an important stabilizer for the markets. After concerning revisions and weak ADP numbers raised recession alarms, Friday’s payrolls print calmed fears on labor market deterioration.
US Stocks Fluctuate as US-China Trade Talks Kick Off in London
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Investing Expeditions: The Ripple Effects of Trade Uncertainty
Research trips are an integral component of our active, fundamental investment process. Our investment teams meet with different companies, attend conferences, and travel to new markets around the world, gaining insights for our clients and a deeper understanding of potential investments.
Gold 2025 Midyear Outlook: A High(er) for Long(er) Gold Price Regime
Rebounding demand from ETF investors and resilient buying from central banks and Asia retail have propelled gold prices to fresh records north of US$3,000/oz. Find out why we believe there is more room to run.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Labor Market in Focus
Last week, the labor market took center stage, presenting a nuanced picture of continued resilience alongside subtle signs of softening.
Why Steel Users Don’t Make More of a Fuss About Tariffs
Iron and steel mills employ about 85,700 people in the US. That’s less than half as many as in 1990 but slightly more than in 2016 and 2017.
Financial Repression Won’t Make Interest Rates Lower
The federal government, financial markets and most Americans are all in a state of denial about interest rates.
Fixed Income Outlook: Cool and Cloudy
Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.
Charting the U.S. Consumer with Kristofer Kraus
Kristofer Kraus, portfolio manager and co-lead of PIMCO’s asset-based finance business, charts the nuances behind the overall resilience of U.S. consumers – and explains how these insights shape lending and investment strategies.
Treasuries Still an Option as Economic Uncertainty Persists
Given the large pool of options available to fixed income investors in the bond market, the ideal option given the current economic uncertainty is still Treasuries. With that, Vanguard has three options worthy of consideration for any portfolio.
Trump, Powell & Rates: Tariffs On, Tariffs Off
With tariffs toggling on and off and a major tax bill still in flux, investors should brace for headline-driven volatility through July, particularly around trade and fiscal policy.
Active EM ETF Offers Access to a Time-Tested Strategy
Since 2019 and the establishment of the ETF Rule, traditional active managers, armed with decades of expertise, have flocked to ETFs.
From Tariff Angst to Optimism
In the last three months tariff news has whipped financial markets around remarkably in response to President Trump’s ever changing tariff policies. The most pronounced reactions were concentrated in the US stock market.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Why Some ETF Investors May Like Closed-End Funds
Closed-end funds can offer stable income streams, but also have some benefits over ETFs when it comes to fund structure.
Political Noise Continued to Dominate Headlines in May
On the trade front, investor uncertainty eased for a short time as President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs seemed to lose traction. Several key developments contributed, including a 90-day tariff pause with China, the signing of a US-UK trade agreement and progress on negotiations with other partners, including Europe.
ISM Services PMI Contracts for First Time Since June 2024
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 49.9—below the forecast of 52.0. This marks the first contraction for the index since June 2024.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Strengthens in May
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 53.7, above the 52.3 forecast. The reading marks the 28th consecutive month of expansion and was a noticeable pickup from April's 17-month low.
Global Stocks Hit Record as Economic Bets Outweigh Trade Jitters
Global equities hit a record high for the first time since February, as signs of a resilient US economy overshadowed uncertainty around trade negotiations.
Are Tariffs Over? Court Ruling Isn't the End
A U.S. trade court has blocked most of the Trump administration's "reciprocal" tariffs, but the legal battle will continue. Here's what investors should know.
Nvidia’s $1 Trillion Rally Has Traders Primed to Ramp Back Up
Nvidia Corp. shares have staged a $1 trillion rebound in two months — and investors are betting the rally has further to go as fears about the chipmaker give way to optimism.
Why the S&P 500 Is Cruising Through Policy Upheaval
f you are wondering why the S&P 500 Index has held up so well in the past two months, look no further than the technology and communications sectors, which collectively account for nearly half of the index by weighting.
Can Tomorrow’s Natural Hazards Inform Today’s Investment Decisions?
New research connects intensifying natural perils to their future implications for asset classes.
The Unbearable Burden of Waiting and Seeing
As investors grapple with nagging macro uncertainty, market volatility’s likely to continue. But we also see reasons for optimism — and new opportunities.
Private Equity Troubles Call for a Long-Term Approach
With the private equity market plagued by uncertainty and volatility, it's more important ever to locate compelling long-term opportunities.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Cools While Sentiment Cautiously Climbs
Last week's economic data presented a mixed but generally more positive outlook. Inflation continued its downward trend in April.
Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: May 2025
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In May, the MCSI was unchanged at 52.2, ending its four-month streak of declines. Meanwhile, the CCI jumped to 98.0, its largest monthly increase in over four years.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Growth Picked Up in May
U.S. manufacturing growth picked up in May, but tariffs and trade policy continued to dominate the sector's landscape. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fifth straight month in May at 52.0. The latest reading was lower than the 52.3 forecast.
Bullish Highlights
Today I’m going to highlight some speakers who added an equity market perspective to their big-picture views. Getting both right would be much easier if more investors behaved rationally. Alas, they don’t, which is why stock prices do incomprehensible things. Fortunately, you can succeed without catching every twist and turn.
Why the Real Threat to Your Wealth Isn’t Tariffs — It’s the Exploding U.S. Debt
While headlines scream about the latest deal or tariff suspension, Maharrey argues that investors are dangerously distracted from the real threat: America’s exploding national debt and the systemic consequences that follow.
The Housing Market’s Next Move
With current home sales at historical lows and mortgage rates hovering between 6% and 7%, homeowners who are locked into previously secured low-interest mortgages remain hesitant to sell. In fact, existing home sales have reached depressed levels unseen in three to four decades.
Credit Spreads: Under the Radar, but Influential
Corporate credit spreads, whether investment grade or high yield, can often hint at hiccups in the stock market and the economy. But they tend to keep a low profile.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.3% in April
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in April and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
Risk Rethought: Local Currency in a Shifting World
Emerging markets debt held its ground in the first quarter, but staying ahead means staying selective. We’re reassessing positioning across high-, low-, and frontier-beta currencies and rates as trade tensions and U.S. policy inject fresh uncertainty.
High Yield ETF Exposure Is a Critical Component in Diversified Portfolios
Many investors have underweighted high yield bond ETF strategies in recent years, satisfied with the opportunities found in other segments of the fixed income market.
Warren Buffett’s Gold Blind Spot
The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, recently announced he will be stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.
Dollar Bounce Is Short-Lived After Trump Tariffs Move Into Limbo
The long-term bearish case for the dollar remained intact after a court ruled that the vast majority of President Donald Trump’s global trade tariffs are illegal, amplifying uncertainty over the US economic outlook.