Gundlach Understates the Federal Debt Problem


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When Jeffrey Gundlach says that the federal deficit is on a suicide mission he is understating the problem.

The 2018 “official” U.S. debt of $34 trillion is 120% of GDP and projected to double as a percentage of GDP within the next 20 years. If we add off-the-balance sheet net obligations like Social Security and Medicare, our all-in debt, or so called “fiscal gap,” rises to $110 trillion, or 390% of GDP. Raising taxes and reducing benefits won’t restore solvency.

Something is going to break, and it won’t be pretty.

We’re broke and no one seems to care. We’re all aware that this country owes a lot of money, but no one cares because we’re leading pretty good lives. We have yet to feel the consequences of being broke, but that won’t last long. Some things are already breaking, and an ultimate breakdown is on the way.

This will be the first year when tax receipts won’t pay for Social Security and Medicare benefits. We are spending down the corpus, and will have spent all of the Social Security Trust by 2034, while Medicare monies will only last until 2026. Nothing is being done to head off these catastrophes. Furthermore, some large pension funds are broke, and are likely to renege on their promised benefits.

In the following I share some details on this bankruptcy, and offer some actions that might help, although they are unlikely.