The One Lesson Investors Should Have Learned from Pension Funds

Just recently I ran a 3-part series on the variety of things individuals believe about saving and investment which is either erroneous or misunderstood. (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3)

The feedback I get when challenging some of the more commonly held beliefs is always interesting. In almost every single case, the arguments against “mathematical realities” comes down to either:

  1. An inability, or unwillingness, to sacrifice today to save more for the future, or;
  2. A “hope” that markets will continue to create returns which will offset the lack of savings.

Okay, it is just a reality that most people don’t want to sacrifice today, for the future tomorrow.

“Live like no one else today, so that you can live like no one else tomorrow.” – Dave Ramsey

Unfortunately, that is the same problem that plagues pension funds all across America today.

As I discussed in “Pension Crisis Is Worse Than You Think,” it has been unrealistic return assumptions used by pension managers over the last 30-years, which has become problematic.

“Pension computations are performed by actuaries using assumptions regarding current and future demographics, life expectancy, investment returns, levels of contributions or taxation, and payouts to beneficiaries, among other variables. The biggest problem, following two major bear markets, and sub-par annualized returns since the turn of the century, is the expected investment return rate.

Using faulty assumptions is the linchpin to the inability to meet future obligations. By over-estimating returns, it has artificially inflated future pension values and reduced the required contribution amounts by individuals and governments paying into the pension system

Pensions STILL have annual investment return assumptions ranging between 7–8% even after years of underperformance.”