US Elections: How the Presidential Candidates Stand on Taxes

As we enter the weeks leading up the election, the future of tax policy is certainly one of the hot topics being discussed on the campaign trail. Considering the pending expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), there will be a sense of urgency post-election for lawmakers to debate the future of taxes on individuals as well as businesses.

Here are some thoughts on tax policy as we head toward election day.

  • While we may see a change in party control in the House and Senate, the slim majorities in Congress we see now are likely to remain after the 2024 ballots are counted, barring any major trend changes in the remaining few weeks before the election. This will make it challenging for whoever is in the White House to pursue more aggressive tax changes since a small number of lawmakers in either the House or the Senate could derail efforts on advancing tax-related legislation.
  • For example, in November 2022 the Democrat-controlled House narrowly passed the Biden administration’s “Build Back Better Act,” which included a number of tax increases. However, the legislation stalled in the Senate even though the Democrats held a (slight) majority. Certain tax proposals being floated currently, such as taxing unrealized capital gains for some taxpayers, would likely be difficult to advance in this political environment.

Current makeup of congress

• There have been several tax-related proposals floated by both presidential candidates on the campaign trail that, in our view, are highly unlikely to gain traction. For example, removing taxes on servers’ tips or not taxing Social Security benefits. In the case of Social Security, given the program’s structural solvency issues, it’s more likely that we will see increased taxes on Social Security at some point in the future.