Prior to the conflict in the Middle East, the U.S. financial markets were being confronted with headlines and attendant concerns surrounding the credit markets.

Markets face a complicated mix of signals. The payroll report came in dramatically weaker than expected, several standard deviations below forecasts, and prior months were revised downward. Taken together, the last two months essentially show zero payroll growth.

For over a decade, the narrative surrounding emerging market (EM) debt has been dominated by a single, overpowering force: the United States Dollar. As the greenback surged from the mid-2010s through the early 2020s, investors seeking yield in emerging markets largely sought shelter in "hard currency" debt—bonds issued by emerging nations but denominated in U.S. dollars.

The market spent the week digesting a modestly hotter PPI print, a pullback in NVIDIA after earnings, and a move in the 10-year Treasury yield below 4 percent.

As speculation builds around a Warsh-led Federal Reserve, the prospect of eliminating the ‘dot plot’ could mark a major shift in forward guidance—potentially increasing rate volatility and reshaping how fixed income markets price policy risk.

The recent report by Citrini Research paints a frightening future of massive AI- induced unemployment, crashing stock markets, rising default rates, and a general descent into economic chaos.

After peaking above 114 in September 2022, the dollar index has spent the last several years drifting lower, touching 96 a few weeks ago before stabilizing at 97.68 as we write. Much of that move has stemmed from weakness relative to the euro specifically.

Fourth-quarter GDP came in at 1.4%, a sharp markdown from early estimates that were inflated by a temporary collapse in the trade deficit.

Last week delivered exactly what the market needed on the economic data front: confirmation that inflation continues to cool while the labor market remains firmly intact. The CPI came in softer than expected, finally reflecting the long-awaited deceleration in rental costs.

Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed Chairman initially reassured bond markets by offering a known, crisis-tested Fed veteran with a reputation as an inflation hawk, reducing uncertainty at a critical juncture for monetary policy.

The mid-term elections are still more than eight months away, but that hasn’t stopped stories and headlines being posted about possible outcomes and what are perhaps the main drivers come voting day. Without a doubt, the number one issue appears to be the notion of affordability, and of course, what plans do the Republicans and Democrats have in store to address this issue.

Just eight years ago we were celebrating 25,000, which means equities have doubled in less than a decade. By the Rule of 72, that’s roughly a 9% annual return including dividends—nominal, yes, but still a powerful reminder that equities continue to reward patience even through extraordinary volatility, policy shocks, and repeated predictions of recession.

Last week began with a quiet Fed meeting, but markets quickly received a new catalyst with Trump announcing Kevin Warsh was Trump’s choice to be the next Federal Reserve chair. Warsh was always my first choice. I expect the Senate to confirm him.

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to pause their rate cuts at the January meeting, keeping the fed funds trading range at 3.50%–3.75%. For those keeping track, the Fed had lowered ‘the funds rate’ by 75 basis points (bps) during the final three FOMC meetings of 2025.

The near-perfect timing of gold breaking through $5,000 while silver sliced through $100 has grabbed the market’s attention.

The key point is that nothing in the incoming data since December has undermined the Fed’s prior message. The economy remains strong, jobless claims are hovering near 200,000, and recession fears continue to recede.

Markets pushed to new highs again last week as investors looked past headline inflation noise and focused on improving breadth beneath the surface.

While the breaking news regarding the Fed receiving subpoenas from the Department of Justice will no doubt garner the lion’s share of Fed-related headlines in the days and weeks ahead, we wanted to roll the clock back and delve into what the markets should be looking at in terms of upcoming traditional monetary policy decisions.

Last week delivered some of the more surprising macro data I’ve seen in years: very slow job growth, but stable unemployment, and a sudden surge in output that materially lifts the outlook for earnings heading into 2026.

The market enters 2026 on a fundamentally solid footing, even if the year-end trading days were choppier than the traditional year-end rallies we often see. Economic momentum exiting 2025 was strong.

As we get ready to close out 2025, one stand-out trend in the U.S. Treasury (UST) market has been the steepening of the yield curve. The question now is whether this trend will continue into 2026, and if it does, how should investors position their bond portfolios?

We guess if you say something enough, a lot of people will start to believe it. The current refrain is that the labor market is cold, weak, struggling. A Google search for “labor market” is eye opening. The first five headlines use the words ‘weakened,’ ‘troubling,’ ‘risky,’ ‘slowing,’ and ‘warning signs.’

The market’s big “aha” moment last week was a CPI print that came in meaningfully cooler than expected, followed immediately by the usual chorus that it must be “distorted.”

While only two official dissenters opposed the December rate cut, dot-plot projections reveal that six Fed members, including four “silent dissenters,” were against easing, signaling deeper division within the Fed than headlines suggest.

Join the experts at WisdomTree for an educational webcast covering the biggest takeaways from the final FOMC meeting of 2025 and how to set yourself up for success in 2026.

The Federal Reserve delivered a "dovish version of the hawkish cut," confirmed by the market's rally, new equity highs, and subtle shifts in leadership. The surprising effective end of Quantitative Tightening and a softening inflation framework underscore a clear turn toward accommodation and ample market liquidity.

Despite the concern post-2024 election about rising U.S. deficits and a potential return of "bond vigilantes," the supply side of the Treasury market has remained stable, with deficits settling near the $1.8 trillion baseline.

With a third consecutive rate cut bringing the Fed Funds range to 3.50%–3.75%, the Fed may pause for now as it reassesses the effectiveness of its “risk management” approach amid mixed economic signals.

The first full week of the holiday shopping season confirmed what I was looking for: consumers are still spending, and they are not being spooked by tariffs or headlines. Black Friday sales were solid, and the weekend into Cyber Monday largely matched expectations.

The field of quantum computing has shifted its focus from the short-lived concept of "quantum supremacy" to a more measurable goal: quantum advantage, which emphasizes reproducible, domain-specific results that verifiably outperform classical systems.

After a difficult 12 months, India's equity story is quietly regaining its rhythm. Valuations that once looked stretched have compressed to more defensible levels, policy continuity after the 2024 election has reassured markets and the long-term growth engine, powered by demographics, digital infrastructure and industrial reshoring, remains intact.

The recent Thanksgiving week provided a crucial snapshot of the changing economy, highlighted by a shift in holiday shopping to early online sales and a significant drop in the 10-year Treasury yield below 4%.

This article questions if the high valuation multiples are justified, arguing that investors will soon need to see actual cash flow results from this massive CapEx bonanza.This aggressive spending has caused their collective free cash flow growth to turn negative, raising concerns since stock valuation is based on future free cash flow.

Markets traded with an unusual mix of strong micro data and fragile macro sentiment last week and nowhere was that clearer than the reaction to Nvidia’s excellent earnings. The fundamentals showed strong demand, a robust product cycle, and clean forward guidance—yet the stock slumped after an early surge.

With the federal government shutdown now over, until the end of January at a minimum, the money and bond markets have turned their attention back to the Fed. Specifically, the conjecture is centered on whether another rate cut will be forthcoming at the December 10 FOMC meeting.

Markets wobbled as Washington’s shutdown drama ended, but I don’t view last week’s pullback as the start of a bear market. The Dow just printed fresh highs, breadth rotated toward quality and defensive stocks, and the weakness centered on AI-linked capex stories repricing risks associated with the capex buildouts.

The Fed can turn QE back on like they did in the latter part of 2019, most likely by buying T-bills. It is important to note that this would be purely a technical mechanism for the funding markets and not a dual mandate monetary policy consideration.

Join the experts at WisdomTree for an in-depth look at the broader macroeconomic picture and a product due diligence session covering practical strategies for dealing with the challenges ahead

Markets are balancing this risk against the belief that the impasse will resolve soon, with short‐term “betting markets” still implying only a modest probability of prolonged gridlock ahead of the Thanksgiving travel week.

The age-old question in fixed income is when should I go long duration? Over the last two years, this has been an ongoing query for investors. More recently, with the Federal Reserve resuming rate cuts, it has come back on the front burner for sure.

There is (another) framework for a deal with China. That is a positive for risk markets. There is increasing evidence of waning tariff effects on company earnings and outlooks. That is a positive for risk markets. The interaction of the two is by far the most intriguing.

The Halloween week Fed meeting was more trick than treat for bonds with only a mild and temporary scare for stocks. As soon as Chair Powell signaled the next cut is “not a foregone conclusion – far from it!,” the Dow swooned before recovering about half the drop, while the 10-year drifted higher.

The Federal Reserve’s October rate cut, to 3.75%–4%, signals a continued “risk management” approach, with December’s policy path tilting toward another cut.

Join the experts at WisdomTree for an educational webcast that explores the current realities of the market, looks at where equity opportunities could emerge, and unpacks how to position fixed income portfolios as rates change.

Part of the reason behind Japanese stocks’ discount to the U.S. is the profitability gap; the U.S. has a Return on Equity (ROE) of 18.3%, while Japan’s broad market has yet to break above 10% on that measure (though some forecasters believe Japan will get its act together).

Energy and commodities are not flashing red. Oil ticked up from depressed levels amid new sanctions on certain Russian producers, but on a multi-month basis crude is still lower, and the broader Bloomberg-style commodity basket has been roughly flat over six to nine months.

Up to now, the Federal Reserve and the bond market have been operating under the assumption that the employment setting has been cooling in a somewhat visible fashion. In fact, recent comments from Powell & Co. underscore how the employment aspect of their dual mandate is where the greater risk may lie.

The most useful conversations about crypto don't start with block times or cryptography; they start with the monetary system. When money supply compounds and confidence in policy waxes and wanes, investors may reach for hard assets—tangible, scarce resources with intrinsic use value whose supply is difficult or costly to expand.

The 10-year Treasury briefly tested 4% and slipped just below, exactly what you’d expect when credit jitters boost demand for safe collateral. Real yields eased as well, consistent with a modest risk-off bid. Treasuries remain the cleanest hedge when credit fears pop, and that relationship asserted itself again last week.

There is little question that the key economic storyline of Q3 was the fact that new job creation was not anywhere near as solid as the markets and, perhaps more importantly, the Fed believed.