The house of pain continues with small caps, at least on a relative basis. Year-to-date, the S&P 600 index has posted a 3.0% gain, so it's not like money is being burned. But still, even the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index is up 4.9% YTD and the S&P 500 is up 10.9%.
Nvidia made a splash last week, or maybe an anti-splash, when it reported earnings and stated an intention to buy back $60 billion in stock.
Here’s how I see it going into a critical data week: the inflation gauges landed precisely on expectations while an ugly July trade gap shaves some growth from Q3, and that combination keeps the Fed on a path to cut 25 basis points at the next meeting.
Europe's defense landscape has undergone a paradigm shift—a rearmament cycle unfolding at a velocity unseen since the Cold War.
While investors often look to the Federal Reserve for macroeconomic signals, Walmart’s earnings may offer even more insight. As a barometer of consumer behavior, pricing trends and tariff impacts, Walmart is a must-watch for anyone trying to understand the real-time U.S. economy.
Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole was a proper and long overdue pivot—and the markets immediately rejoiced. This was the dovish signal investors had been hoping for, and even stronger than I expected Powell to deliver.
Following the softer-than-expected July jobs report, the money and bond markets have fully embraced the narrative that a Fed rate cut will be coming at the September FOMC meeting.
We received a slew of economic data this past week, but the true market mover lies ahead this Friday: Chair Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole address.
Despite headline noise from U.S. tariffs and mixed earnings, India’s structural growth pillars—credit expansion, services exports and infrastructure delivery—remain firmly intact in 2025.
Sam Rines explains why it's time to find out what really drives returns in a shifting macro environment.
The first full week of August offered a concise lesson in how quickly the policy calculus can shift when both politics and data align. Equity markets wobbled after reports that Governor Christopher Waller, not Kevin Warsh, is now the front runner for the next Fed chair.
2025 has been historically turbulent for the dollar, with declines of a magnitude last observed during the global financial crisis
As the Federal Reserve (Fed) conducts its quinquennial review of monetary policy, it must recognize the severe shortcomings of its current policy framework.
Friday’s employment report produced the greatest downward revision in jobs in over half a century (excluding COVID), This is my interpretation of the fallout:
It happened quickly. One minute, the focus was on the furious nature of stocks’ rebound off the April 8 lows. The next minute you start hearing strategists, including ourselves, making references to 2021.
For the fifth meeting in a row, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%–4.50%.
With August tariff extensions looming, several major companies are now guiding for reduced tariff impacts, a shift that has helped boost market sentiment this earnings season.
The U.S. economy is still proving resilient despite global tensions and trade barriers. The news of a 15% EU deal is very encouraging, and there were few other restrictions in the preliminary agreement.
Despite continued economic resilience, the political storm brewing between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Powell has taken center stage.
With inflation proving to be sticky, sovereign debt burdens escalating, and trust in institutions coming under scrutiny, investors are reassessing the role that hard assets play in protecting and preserving long-term purchasing power.
Markets continued their strong run last week before pulling back slightly as a flurry of tariff rhetoric hit the wires. It’s important to understand markets are rallying because they assume these tariff threats are more political posturing than lasting economic policy.
One of the more storied headlines this year has been President Trump’s disappointment with the Fed for not cutting rates. We should all know by now that the President cannot fire a Fed Chair simply because he/she is not lowering interest rates to their liking.
Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.
The headline employment figure came in stronger than expected and better than feared following the weak ADP report, but the details were far from a blockbuster.
Markets notched fresh all-time highs on Friday with a positive tone and geopolitical outlook. Swift retreat in oil back to pre-strike levels, combined with friendlier NATO negotiations and de-escalated fighting in Iran restored risk appetite.
In a recent newsletter, we explored the explosive growth of ETFs and the implications for portfolio construction. In this follow-up blog post, Lauren and I wanted to take that conversation a step further—diving deeper into how advisors can navigate the ever-expanding ETF universe while staying true to their investment philosophy.
As the advisory landscape continues to evolve, one theme is increasingly clear: advisors need more flexibility to meet the diverse and growing expectations of their clients.
ETFs have surged in popularity thanks to their transparency, low costs and tax efficiency. But behind the scenes, a unique dual-market system powers their liquidity and accessibility.
It wasn’t too long ago that you could confidently proclaim that most of the Street was ebullient, maybe even wildly so, with respect to the greenback’s prospects.
The U.S. strike on Iran over the weekend has added a modest premium to oil, and in the Sunday evening market, stocks opened only slightly lower. Any resolution to the crisis could send stocks to new all-time highs.
For the fourth meeting in a row, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%–4.50%.
Despite consumer fears of 1970s-style inflation, actual CPI has cooled to just 2.4%. Jeff Weniger makes the case that we may be living in a Goldilocks scenario, where price trends align with a stable and balanced economic environment.
This week’s market resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions underscores an important structural shift. The Israeli strikes and broader Middle East dynamics, while concerning, sparked only a modest reaction—a far cry from the volatility such events triggered in past decades.
Industrial robotics is no longer a niche topic reserved for factory optimization—it is becoming a key lever in national strategies for productivity, labor substitution and supply chain resilience.
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
In the current land of uncertainty the markets and investors find themselves in, the monthly Employment Situation report is ‘must-see TV’ and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
Last week’s employment report was an important stabilizer for the markets. After concerning revisions and weak ADP numbers raised recession alarms, Friday’s payrolls print calmed fears on labor market deterioration.
With tariffs toggling on and off and a major tax bill still in flux, investors should brace for headline-driven volatility through July, particularly around trade and fiscal policy.
The economic narrative took a decisive turn last week. A stunning collapse in the trade deficit suggests we could be looking at near 4% GDP growth in the second quarter—a massive upward revision from the consensus of 2%.
Gold reached a fresh all-time high in April, continuing its strong upward trajectory over the past six months.
Remember last July and August when the yen carry trade blew up? At the time, the central bank surprised the market by signaling a faster pace of rate hikes than expected. Investors sold foreign currency, bought back yen and sent markets into a tailspin.
Friday’s market tremor was ignited not by economic data, which brought limited new releases, but by revived political uncertainty—specifically, President Trump’s abrupt reinvigorated tariff threats.
In 2025, AI crossed a subtle but monumental threshold: it stopped just answering questions and started executing goals.
What investors thought was going to be a nice start to a weekend in May got turned around with a late Friday announcement that Moody’s had just downgraded the U.S. long-term credit rating.
In a year dominated by multimodal marvels and reasoning breakthroughs, perhaps the most economically significant shift in AI went largely underplayed: cost collapse.
After Friday’s close, Moody’s downgraded U.S. treasuries, as S&P had 14 years ago, in 2011. I criticized the downgrade then…and I do now. The government cannot technically default, as the Fed can always buy the bonds for any auction.
After a brief reprieve from all the recession talk while the Fed was raising rates to decades-old high watermarks, the ‘R’ word has come back into vogue once again post-Liberation day.
Our overarching theme for U.S. fixed income has been, and will continue to be, based on the premise that interest rates will stay at more historically “normal” levels, but that, within this backdrop, investors will face heightened volatility.
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