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The War on Cash Is Still Good for Gold
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
9/17/16
With the five-year Treasury yielding 1.19 percent, government bond investors are now receiving a negative real rate of return (because 2.3 minus 1.19 comes out to negative 1.11 percent). This is highly constructive for the price of gold. As I’ve discussed many times before, the yellow metal has benefited when real rates have fallen below zero. This was the case in September 2011 when gold hit its all-time high of $1,900 per ounce. And last year around this time, the opposite was true—positive real rates were a drag on gold.
5 Reasons Why Active Management Works
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
9/15/16
As we all know, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have increasingly become the hot menu item, attracting a lot of money away from actively-managed funds such as mutual funds. But don’t discount active management just yet!
Look to Chindia for Gold’s Love Trade
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
9/12/16
A couple of weeks ago, I shared with you what I brought home from my trip to Toronto, Vancouver and New York City, where I had met with gold fund analysts.
Use This Tip to Help You Avoid Taxes Like the Top 1 Percent
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
9/9/16
Many people might have the impression that the top 1 percent of society—those making over $521,411—deal mainly in exotic investments such as derivatives, fine art and rare French wines. The truth is actually a lot less exciting.
Apple Gets a Shakedown from the EU. Is Ireland Next to Bail?
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
9/3/16
“Total political crap.” That’s how Apple CEO Tim Cook described the European Commission’s ruling that the iPhone maker must pay 13 billion euros ($14.5 billion), plus interest, in back taxes to Ireland, its longtime European host. Meanwhile, the island-nation is being accused of giving Apple an “illegal” sweetheart deal in exchange for jobs.
11 Reasons Why Everyone Wants to Move to Texas
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
8/28/16
As a “Tex-Can”—born in Canada, lived in Texas the past 26 years—I’m so blessed to call Texas my home. I can’t wait to tell you all the fascinating things I’ve learned that makes the state a truly remarkable place.
These Olympian Gold Royalty Companies Are Insanely Attractive
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
8/19/16
Some of our favorite names in this space include Franco-Nevada Mining, Silver Wheaton, Royal Gold and Sandstorm Gold, all of which have outperformed underlying gold for the 12-month period.
Global Economic Perspective: August
by
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group
of
Franklin Templeton Investments
,
8/19/16
As policymakers confront the limits of the monetary approach, conversations have increasingly turned to a discussion of potential alternatives to combat slow growth. Looking forward, we think this dialogue will likely broaden to include more countries in the months to come.
Gold Spending in India Is Set to Get a Boost from a Strong Monsoon Season
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
8/19/16
Since before recorded human history, the people of India have had an insatiable appetite for gold, treasuring it not only for its flawless natural beauty and religious significance but also as a superb store of value.
Go Gold!
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
8/13/16
Today marks one week since the start of the Rio de Janeiro Olympics, and it’s been nothing short of amazing. Michael Phelps, whose name should forevermore be synonymous with the Olympics, won his 22nd overall gold medal. He also was awarded his 13th individual gold, effectively breaking a record last set in 152 B.C. by runner Leonidas of Rhodes.
Avoiding the Traffic Jam in High-Dividend Stocks
by
James T. Tierney, Jr., Dan Roarty, Frank Caruso
of
AllianceBernstein
,
8/9/16
Many investors are seeking safety in higher-yielding dividend stocks. But what if they all change their minds at once? We think there are better ways to invest in equities without getting stuck in a traffic jam.
Looking for Yield in All the Wrong Places
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
7/31/16
Fixed-income isn't what it used to be. As the Wall Street Journal reports, the total amount of global government bonds that bear negative yields, meaning it costs you to have the government hold your money, has now climbed to a massive $13 trillion.
Romania Did This, and Now It’s Among the Fastest Growers in Europe
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
7/29/16
In 1974, the American economist Arthur Laffer, then a professor at the University of Chicago, was having dinner with his friend Jude Wanniski, an associate editor of the Wall Street Journal. They were joined by Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney, both of whom worked at the time in the Gerald Ford administration. The topic at hand was President Ford’s Whip Inflation Now, or WIN, initiative, which included proposed tax increases.
The Cost of Quality
by
Cliff Stanton, Jeremy Frank
of
361 Capital
,
7/26/16
As is likely the case with other liquid alts managers, we are sometimes asked the question about fee levels. Recently, we received such a question and went on to articulate what we thought was a well-reasoned position, only to receive feedback that our response was inadequate. Such feedback may be expected, so we thought we’d take another stab at addressing how to think about fees in the asset management world.
Will the Gold Bull Market Resume After the Summer Correction?
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
7/23/16
Only time will tell which candidate will be triumphant in November, but in the meantime, one of the winners might very well be gold, which has traditionally attracted investors in times of political and economic uncertainty. In the United Kingdom, which voted one month ago to leave the European Union, gold dealers are seeing “unprecedented” demand, especially from first-time buyers. Some investors are reportedly even converting 40 to 50 percent of their net worth into bullion, though that’s not advisable. (I always suggest a 10 percent weighting, diversified in physical gold and gold mining stocks.) In Japan, where government bond yields have fallen below zero and faith in Abenomics is flagging, gold sales are soaring. It’s not unreasonable to expect the same here in the U.S. between now and November (and beyond).
Why I Don’t Believe Trump or Hillary Would Tax this Important Asset Class
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
7/21/16
U.S. municipal bonds have had a spectacular first half of the year. As of July 1, they returned 6.2 percent on a tax-adjusted basis, compared to the 2.7 percent for the S&P 500 Index, placing them among the top performers of 2016 so far. Last month was munis’ best June performance since 2000, according to Bloomberg, spurred largely by negative bond yields around the globe and investor uncertainty following the Brexit referendum in the U.K.
Is this the Airlines Liftoff Investors Have Been Waiting For?
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
7/16/16
A flurry of good news lifted airline stocks higher this week, reversing a drop in altitude that’s weighed on the industry so far in 2016. Fueled primarily by a bullish report from Deutsche Bank, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Continental collectively advanced 6.5 percent on Tuesday alone. The German bank’s all-clear signal halted a six-month slide on overcapacity, Brexit uncertainty and heightened fears of global terrorism.
Global Economic Perspective: July
by
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group
of
Franklin Templeton Investments
,
7/15/16
In terms of monetary policy, we had expected the BOE to move into easing mode, though it chose not to so do at its July meeting, but we think the ECB will try to gauge the impact of the UK result, rather than rush to expand or extend its current program of bond purchases.
Gold Is Just Getting Warmed Up: UBS Analyst
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
7/13/16
It’s been a stellar six months for gold investors. The yellow metal has surged 28 percent year-to-date, its best first half of the year since 1974. And now there are signs that the rally is just getting started.
Silver Takes the Gold: Commodities Halftime Report 2016
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
7/9/16
Here we are at the halfway point of the year, less than two months away from the Rio 2016 Olympic Games. As a group, commodities are the top performing asset class, beating domestic equities, the U.S. dollar and Treasuries.
Four Winners to Emerge from Brexit
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
7/3/16
If nothing else, this alone should be seen as a positive consequence of Brexit. It’s too early to tell what direction the EU will take post-Brexit, or whether any material policy changes will be made, but it seems as if the cries of resentment and frustration that have risen up from England and Wales (and, to a lesser extent, Scotland and Northern Ireland) have not fallen on deaf ears.
How Will Brexit Affect EU Sanctions Against Russia?
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
6/30/16
Brexit has dominated world headlines for the last couple of weeks, and with good reason: The U.K.’s historic referendum has already roiled markets around the globe; raised serious questions about immigration, trade and diplomacy; cast a harsh spotlight on the EU’s avalanche of rules and regulations; and divided member states on the best way forward. Among other far-reaching consequences, Brexit could end up causing Europe to rethink its sanctions policy against Russia, following a vote in Brussels last week to extend them another six months.
The Advisor Alpha: How Much Are You Worth to Clients?
by
Frank Serebin
,
6/28/16
According to Vanguard, advisors can potentially add 3% each year to client returns. That’s after fees, expenses and taxes. So how can you add 3% more each year than the average advisor?
A Classic Case of Failed Socialism: What’s Next After the Brexit?
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
6/25/16
Defying sentiment polls leading up to yesterday’s historic Brexit referendum, British voters said “thanks, but no thanks” to excessive EU taxation and regulation, choosing to take back Britain’s sovereignty in financing, budgeting, immigration policy and other areas essential to a nation’s self-identity. It was a momentous victory for the “leave” camp, led by former London mayor Boris Johnson and U.K. Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, who invoked the 1990s sci-fi action film “Independence Day” by declaring June 23 “our independence day” from foreign rule.
Why Gold, Why Now?
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
6/22/16
During my most recent webcast a couple of weeks ago, I had the pleasure of being joined by the CEO of the World Gold Council (WGC), Aram Shishmanian. As expected of someone of his stature, Aram brought another level of insight and expertise to our discussion of gold’s Love Trade and Fear Trade.
Follow the Productivity Trail to Earnings Growth
by
Frank Caruso, Christopher Kotowicz
of
AllianceBernstein
,
6/21/16
Productivity never really goes out of style. In a world of scarce earnings growth, companies purveying productivity can be especially important in helping investors blaze new trails to profitable pockets of equity markets.
Canada Wildfires Still Not Reflected in Official Oil Inventories
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
6/17/16
A month and a half after they began, the Fort McMurray wildfires in Alberta, Canada still blaze on in contained patches. Already estimated to be the most expensive disaster in Canadian history, costing the Albertan economy $70 million per day, the fires are now believed to be the work of humans, according to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP).
What Brexit Is All About: Taxation Without Representation
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
6/17/16
I want to continue the Brexit conversation from last week. With only six days left before U.K. voters head to the polls, expectations of which side might win are beginning to shift toward the “Brexiteers,” while betting markets are still putting money on the “stay” campaign. However, the probability of victory for those who favor keeping their European Union membership has weakened rather remarkably in the last month, falling from over 80 percent in mid-May to around 62 percent today, according to BCA Research.
Global Economic Perspective: June
by
Franklin Tempeton Fixed Income Group
of
Franklin Templeton Investments
,
6/16/16
Our view is that the US economy remains on course to pick up over the rest of this year, despite May’s disappointing payroll report, which helped persuade the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold back temporarily from raising rates at its June meeting. We do not place too much importance on this single piece of data and believe the economy’s robust fundamentals are likely to fulfill the Fed’s criteria for tightening monetary policy fairly soon.
Are We Nearing the End of the EU Experiment?
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
6/12/16
If you’re a serious investor—and because you’re reading this, I have to assume that you are—gold is looking more and more like a crucial trade. Only two weeks remain before United Kingdom voters decide on whether the country will continue to be a member of the European Union (EU) or become the first-ever to leave it. The “Brexit,” as it’s come to be known, is arguably the most consequential political event of 2016—perhaps even more so than the U.S. presidential election in November—with far-reaching implications.
Is India the New China?
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
6/4/16
Make no mistake, China’s oil demand is still massive, second only to the U.S. But it has begun to contract in recent months, and there to offset the difference is India, who is expected to have the fastest growing demand for crude between now and 2040, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Here Are the World’s Top 10 Gold Producing Mines
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
6/2/16
Gold output across the globe hit an all-time high in 2015, climbing 1.8 percent to 3,211 tonnes. Much of this growth was led by Mexico, whose output increased double digits (18 percent) from 112 tonnes in 2014 to 133 tonnes last year. Indonesia grew 20 percent, Kazakhstan 29 percent.
Top 10 Countries with Largest Gold Reserves
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
5/27/16
Beginning in 2010, central banks around the world turned from being net sellers of gold to net buyers of gold. Last year they collectively added 483 tonnes—the second largest annual total since the end of the gold standard—with Russia and China accounting for most of the activity. The second half of 2015 saw the most robust purchasing on record, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).
Can the TPP Save the Global Economy?
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
5/27/16
According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), the TPP “will increase annual real incomes in the United States by $131 billion, or 0.5 percent of GDP, and annual exports by $357 billion, or 9.1 percent of exports, by 2030.” For all member nations, the deal is expected to add $492 billion in real income.
Gold Takes a Breather… Is this the Buying Opportunity Investors Are Looking For?
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
5/21/16
First it was Stan Druckenmiller, now it’s George Soros. Following billionaire former hedge fund manager Druckenmiller’s announcement that gold was his family office fund’s largest currency allocation, we learned this week that his old boss, billionaire investor George Soros, purchased a $264 million stake in Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold producer, after liquidating $3.5 billion in U.S.-listed stocks. Additionally, he disclosed owning call options on a gold ETF.
Yield-Starved Foreign Investors Are Flooding the U.S. Muni Market
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
5/19/16
Strange are the times when a third of all government debt around the world carries a negative yield, and yet such is the case today. From Japan to eurozone countries, investors are faced with the tough decision of accepting subzero yields, doing nothing—or seeking other so-called “safe haven” options. Many have rediscovered gold, and as I pointed out earlier this week, demand for the yellow metal as an investment just had its best first quarter ever, with near-record inflows into gold ETFs.
Gold Demand Just Had Its Strongest-Ever First Quarter
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
5/17/16
This year’s first quarter is one for the history books. Not only did gold appreciate at its fastest pace in 30 years, but demand for the yellow metal was the strongest it’s ever been on record. Let me repeat that: the strongest it has ever been.
Global Economic Perspective: May
by
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group
of
Franklin Templeton Investments
,
5/16/16
The road toward the ECB’s target of 2% inflation will likely be long, but we maintain our belief that the central bank is currently pursuing all of the politically feasible policies at its disposal that can encourage a further revival of economic activity and help achieve that goal.
Gold Demand Just Had Its Strongest-Ever First Quarter
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
5/14/16
This year’s first quarter is one for the history books. Not only did gold appreciate at its fastest pace in 30 years, but demand for the yellow metal was the strongest it’s ever been on record. Let me repeat that: the strongest it has ever been. Demand surged 21 percent from the same period a year ago, according to the latest World Gold Council (WGC) report. Most of this demand was driven by investment, with net inflows into gold ETFs reaching 363.7 tonnes, a seven-year high.
Appetite for Bullion Coins Soars, Gold Game Film Turns Two
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
5/9/16
Precious metals are going insane right now, thanks in large part to the weaker U.S. dollar. Year-to-date, palladium is up 7 percent, platinum 19 percent, gold 21 percent and silver 25 percent. A correction at this point would be healthy, but looking ahead, this rally appears to have legs.
This Election Year, It’s Not Just Trump Investors Should Worry About
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
5/6/16
I believe investors’ fears of a socialist Bernie Sanders presidency, not to mention negative interest rates, have driven a lot of gold’s recent momentum, more so than the idea of a Trump presidency.
Silver Wheaton: The Ultimate Streaming Service
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
5/1/16
As the only pure silver mining company, Silver Wheaton couldn’t have been founded during a more opportune time. The commodities boom was still young. I remember that when the idea was shared with me, what I found most attractive was that it had virtually no competition. Franco-Nevada, which had been acquired by Newmont in 2001, wouldn’t be spun off for three more years. It was a no-brainer to put capital in this new endeavor.
China: Still the World’s Number One Heavy Metal Rock Star
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
4/29/16
There’s a lot to unpack here, but I’ll say upfront that Cornerstone’s analysis is directly in line with our own, especially where the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is concerned. China’s March PMI reading, at 49.7, was not only at its highest since February 2015 but it also crossed above its three-month moving average—a clear bullish signal, as I explained in-depth in January.
China: Still the World’s Number One Heavy Metal Rock Star
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
4/23/16
China’s appetite for metals—gold, silver, copper, iron ore and more—is growing, another sign that the Asian giant is in turnaround mode.
Global Economic Perspective: April
by
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group®
of
Franklin Templeton Investments
,
4/22/16
We have some apprehension about the more dovish stance taken by the US Federal Reserve, which in our view may place too great a focus on global factors, despite a relatively tight US labor market and some indications of a pickup in core inflation.
Why One Analyst Believes Gold Could Hit $3,000 an Ounce
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
4/19/16
After finishing its best quarter in 30 years, gold extended its gains, rising more than 17.2 percent year-to-date to become the best performing asset class among other commodities, U.S. Treasury bonds and major world currencies and equity indices.
If You’re Not Following this Energy Trend, You’re Being Left in the Dust
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
4/15/16
This week our office was visited by my friend, investor and author Gianni Kovacevic, who is at the halfway point of a cross-country book tour to promote the latest edition of “My Electrician Drives a Porsche?” As part of the tour, he’s driving a Tesla Model S from Boston to Palo Alto, California—Tesla’s hometown—to demonstrate the potential of green energy and spread his message that “the future is now.”
Mile-High Merger: Alaska Airlines Buys Virgin America, Expanding Market Reach
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
4/9/16
The $2.6 billion deal, awaiting shareholder approval in June, would create the fifth-largest U.S. airline by traffic and result in a much more competitive player, especially on the West Coast. (Alaska is based in Seattle, Virgin in San Francisco.) According to the Wall Street Journal, Alaska’s annual revenue could grow 27 percent because of the deal.
Be on the Right Side of Change
by
Frank Caruso, Dan Roarty
of
AllianceBernstein
,
4/8/16
Companies are having a much harder time producing earnings growth. Those that are positioned on the right side of change should be better placed to increase profits—and deliver investment returns—in a growth-constrained world.
You’ll Fall in Love with these Dividend Growth Stocks
by
Frank Holmes
of
U.S. Global Investors
,
4/7/16
Last week I shared with you the Commerce Departments’ news that fourth-quarter corporate profits, while still at record highs, sank at their fastest pace since the same period in 2008.
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