At these levels, valuations are stretched, leaving investors with little potential upside and increased vulnerability to spread widening. In our view, such an environment warrants a shift toward high-quality assets.
North is south, south is west, west is east, east is north, up is down, and down is steady. This week’s employment reports have something for everyone, which is precisely why we should interpret them cautiously.
Prior to the conflict in the Middle East, the U.S. financial markets were being confronted with headlines and attendant concerns surrounding the credit markets.
Kitty Hawk, North Carolina is known as the birthplace of aviation. Success did not come overnight. The Wright Brothers spent three years on the Outer Banks experimenting. While they ultimately took flight, the potential downsides of their endeavor were of constant concern.
The size and duration of the oil-price shock are key variables in determining the ultimate impact.
Have no fear—ETFs tracking crude oil, natural gas, and even wholesale gasoline futures are at the ready.
Spring training started in Arizona recently and it reminded us of the 2025 World Series. The series ended a Major League season which was delightful and instructive.
Soaring oil prices and the military conflict in Iran are among the primary reasons the MSCI EAFE Index is off nearly 6% over the past month.
Adam Hetts and Oliver Blackbourn discuss where they assess the market implications of sustained conflict with Iran, examining energy shocks, inflation pressures, and what prolonged instability could mean for investors.
LPL Research reviews how the Iran conflict is affecting markets, highlighting energy risks, market resilience, and what investors should watch in the weeks ahead.
The “fiat is dying” argument has become a catchphrase narrative among digital asset bulls, gold bugs, and cryptocurrency advocates. That narrative’s core is that central banks have printed vast amounts of money.
If tensions de-escalate soon, there could be relatively little impact on international markets. However, risks will rise if global energy supplies face a prolonged disruption.
On February 27, 2026 the United States and Israel launched a coordinated strike on Iran’s leadership, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many of the leadership team. Since the initial attack, a torrent of strikes has continued, designed to take out Iran’s ballistic missiles and leadership apparatus.
The Treasury market is stuck between artificial intelligence (AI)-driven job displacement and the ongoing conflict in Iran. Earlier in the year, Treasury yields fell sharply as investors weighed the possibility that accelerated AI adoption could slow economic growth by displacing labor.
Ongoing military actions in the Middle East have increased investor uncertainty. Of course, geopolitical risk has always existed, and this time is no different.
The ongoing conflict involving Iran and the disruption to energy markets has moved beyond headline risk and is now influencing expectations for growth, inflation and policy. As of March 9, oil prices briefly breached the $100 per barrel threshold — a development that shifts the macro conversation compared to last week.
Japan is a major oil importer. That explains the vulnerabilities of the country’s equity market to conflict in Iran. Over the past month, the MSCI Japan Index is off about 2%.
2026 has kicked off with investors on the lookout for opportunities in a broadening market. While tech remains an important part of countless investor portfolios, it’s not the only category offering opportunities.
Global conflict has erupted in 2026, from South America to the Middle East. With energy at the center of the picture, markets face potentially serious volatility.
Data center developers plan to reduce their reliance on utility grids by investing in onsite power for rapidly scaling facilities. The shift creates opportunities for electrification infrastructure providers as energy independence takes on new urgency.
We have repeatedly highlighted the delicate balance that the U.S. economy and markets remain suspended in as the Federal Reserve treads a thin line between a softening labor market and stubborn inflation that continues to hover above its 2 percent target.
Markets hate uncertainty, and right now there’s plenty to go around. The outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, following by Iranian retaliation against oil infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, has sent crude prices surging and shipping rates soaring to record levels.
Energy markets drove this week’s market volatility, with the conflict in Iran triggering a sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices. Through Thursday’s close, West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up roughly 17% from last Friday, pushing prices close to $80 per barrel.
About a month ago the financial markets were surprised by a January jobs report that was stronger than expected. The consensus was for a gain of 68,000 private-sector jobs, but the actual came in at a much higher 172,000.
Markets face a complicated mix of signals. The payroll report came in dramatically weaker than expected, several standard deviations below forecasts, and prior months were revised downward. Taken together, the last two months essentially show zero payroll growth.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
With its airspace closed and many flights grounded, gold stuck in Dubai is being sold at a discount.
The opening months of 2026 have been hectic. A partial inventory of major developments during the year to date would include the removal of Venezuela’s leader; a government investigation into the Chairman of the Federal Reserve; tension with Europe over Greenland; and a broad swath of U.S. tariffs stricken down by the Supreme Court. It’s been a lot to digest.
Today’s letter will look at something even more important: recent developments in artificial intelligence. The models are advancing at an accelerating pace, with major new capabilities revealed just in the last 2-3 months.
The S&P 500 closed at 6,740 on Friday, its lowest level since mid-December, as technical deterioration, collapsing payrolls, and $100 oil converged on the charts. Every major moving average has broken. Here’s what comes next.
One of the most common questions investors ask is simple: “How’s the market?” After more than 50 years in the investment industry, this is a question that comes up constantly. But the truth is, the question itself is somewhat misleading.
Concerns about private credit have intensified in recent months. Investors are grappling with questions about weakening credit quality, stale valuations, looser underwriting, redemption risk in certain types of funds, and the impact of AI‑driven disruption.
The Debt Black Hole keeps getting bigger. Household debt grew modestly in the fourth quarter of 2025, ending the year at another record high.
While senior military officials on both sides have signaled that the campaign may intensify in the near term, keeping headline risks elevated, we outline below why we believe the conflict is likely to be short-lived, and what that could mean for the economy, the Federal Reserve and financial markets in the weeks ahead.
Software stocks have suffered a rude awakening amid fears that artificial intelligence (AI) will upend the industry. While the outlook is highly uncertain, the indiscriminate market response may be conflating structurally exposed software businesses with more durable companies.
February ended with a sharp escalation in conflict involving Iran, putting geopolitical risk back on investors’ radar and unsettling energy and emerging markets. But for most of the month, performance was driven largely by continued rotation tied to AI disruption and shifting earnings expectations.
Thematic exchange traded fund assets in the U.S. have surged from $22 billion in 2015 to over $193 billion today, but not all thematic funds deliver on their promises, according to a new FactSet analysis.
As investors navigate an increasingly complex market, the demand for sophisticated, outcome-oriented ETF strategies has reached a significant inflection point. Goldman Sachs Asset Management is seeing strong success in this space, evolving its suite of derivative-based ETFs to meet the diverse needs of modern portfolios.
Improving after tax returns is rarely as simple as boosting pretax returns or reducing tax expenses. It’s actually quite a bit more involved than that. As we see it, maximizing after-tax performance requires an “all of the above” approach, applying a range of techniques in a holistic way.
This week I sat down with Eric Fine, who manages emerging market bond portfolios at VanEck. I had a tidy interview all mapped out… and then escalating events in the Middle East reshuffled the deck. That’s okay because it ultimately led us somewhere more interesting than where I’d intended to go.
Managed futures strategies, also known as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) or trend-followers, are designed for environments where macro shifts drive persistent price trends across equity, bond, commodity, and currency markets. As geopolitical risk has spiked due to the conflict with Iran, the current backdrop will present a unique test for investment strategies.
With one month left in the quarter, M&A is running a little light compared to the record-breaking close of 2025. According to Wall Street Horizon’s coverage universe of 11,000 global equities, there have been 59 M&A announcements and 78 closes as of March 2.
As the market continues to move deeper into the first quarter of 2026, the fixed income landscape calls for more stability.
In a recent episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey discussed volatility in the gold and silver markets amid escalating geopolitical tensions and broader financial market turmoil. Maharrey opened by criticizing mainstream financial media coverage of a recent selloff that occurred as markets reacted to a conflict involving Iran.
Amid perceived artificial intelligence (AI) threats, cybersecurity stocks are enduring quite a rough patch. However, there are alternative viewpoints.
Artificial intelligence has become one of the defining investment themes of this cycle. Yes, we may be hearing about the AI pullback as a valuation reset. However, that doesn’t change the underlying scale of adoption for this theme. And that’s evident even “under the hood” of ETFs.
Three years after the launch of ChatGPT 3.5, positioning around artificial intelligence-related companies has become a (perhaps “the”) critical decision for equity investors. AI investment spending by companies far exceeds current revenue generation from end-market use cases, leaving highly leveraged players facing existential risks.
February data shows investors abandoning growth strategies for cyclical sectors as value funds attract $15 billion in new assets.
The war in Iran and the risk that it could lead to a wider regional conflict have roiled global financial markets. Oil and European gas prices have spiked while equity markets have seen sharp declines.
For over a decade, the narrative surrounding emerging market (EM) debt has been dominated by a single, overpowering force: the United States Dollar. As the greenback surged from the mid-2010s through the early 2020s, investors seeking yield in emerging markets largely sought shelter in "hard currency" debt—bonds issued by emerging nations but denominated in U.S. dollars.
