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Data Driven or Driven Data
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
There can be little doubt that data releases rather than experience or intuition are driving the economic conversation. This is perhaps a function of the disconnection that many people feel about an economy that they no longer understand.
2015 Fixed Income Outlook: Handle with Care
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
With sustained improvement in economic growth, slowly rising inflation, and the approach of the Feds first interest rate hike, bond prices are likely to decline in 2015. High-yield bonds and bank loans can help investors manage this challenging bond market.
Who Should Go to the Bowls?
When I was a kid there were just four year-end college football bowl games. Today there are 39. Perhaps the title of this piece should be Do we need holiday football bowls at all? But I guess they wouldnt produce them unless there was a demand for them from the cities, hoping to get some travelers, to the sponsors, hoping to get some attention, to the teams, seeking to cap a successful season, and to the fans, who are just looking to have some fun and experience a last hurrah for this years heroes.
A Long-Term View for China
by Nick Niziolek of Calamos Investments,
When I meet with clients, one of the most frequent questions Im asked is, What do you think about China? With Chinas rate cut this past Friday helping to fuel a global equity rally, we were reminded of how relevant the China question is to the overall health of the global markets and economy. In this post, Ill discuss the lens through which we view China and how we interpret the daily flood of policy-related headlines coming out of the country to determine what is noise and what is actionable.
Go for the Gold: Commodities and Inflation
by Denis Chaves of Research Affiliates,
Unexpected inflation would be especially damaging to portfolio returns when asset class yields are low, but a modest amount of inflation protection can substantially mitigate the risk. Commodities can be effective hedges against inflationary shocks.
Peaking Process
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
In my view, we are likely witnessing the peak of the third equity valuation bubble in the past 14 years, the first two which saw major indices plunge by at least 50%. Its important to recognize that market peaks are a process, not an event. Internal deterioration has actually been developing since early July, and became measurable in early August. This process has been quite like what we observed in 2007, when deterioration became measurable in July of that year. Despite an initial selloff, the major indices recovered to a marginal new high in October 2007 before continuing lower.
The All Everything Portfolio? No Such Thing
by Roger Nusbaum of AdvisorShares,
Barry Ritholtz has had some good fun torching Tony Robbins All Weather Portfolio for having too much in bonds and commodities as well as being to backward looking and being put forth as a one size fits all. The latest was in his WaPo column dated December 5, 2014.
Inflection Points
U.S. equities surged over the last six years as the economy regained its footing after the financial crisis, and companies underwent substantial cost cuts to improve profitability. Today, many international companies and regional economies are early in the process of making similar positive, transformative changes.
The Big Squeeze Begins
by Michael Story of PIMCO,
Current European Central Bank policies, along with the regulatory environment, are constricting the two primary investment vehicles available to store cash. As many money market funds have maxed out the risk they can take and some regional European banks have started to charge the equivalent of negative rates on deposits, large cash investors are left to ponder how to avoid the potential loss of capital. We believe PIMCO's approach to balancing three key cash management trade-offs may provide an attractive solution for investors.
Ramping Up Reform in Brazil
by Rick Harper of WisdomTree, Inc.,
On November 27, President Rousseff shook up her cabinet through the appointment of Joaquim Levy as finance minister. In our opinion, this marks a positive first step by the administration in its attempt to re-establish its credibility with the market.
Are You Prepared for Short-term Rates to Rise?
by Craig Brandon of Eaton Vance,
In this timely Q&A, Craig Brandon, portfolio manager of Eaton Vance Floating-Rate Municipal Income Fund, offers his thoughts on the asset class, how he manages the Fund and which investors may find the strategy attractive.
Macroeconomics Finally Gets Interesting
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
2015 may be the year that macroeconomics really becomes interesting again, if it hasnt already. After a long period of relatively coordinated central bank policies and remarkably low volatility, the macro scene is becoming more dynamic. Thats great for those who live and die by dramatic long-term shifts in global markets, but it should be terrifying for emerging-market policymakers, currency carry traders, Texas oil men, and, frankly, the average investor. King Volatility is back on his throne.
Dont Let Market Motion Sickness Keep You From Missing the Boat
Despite all of the good news, the recent threat of market volatility, which weve seen plenty of in commodities and emerging markets, seems to have pushed close-to-retirement folks away from equity securities. The August and October downturns, not to mention the decline in gold and oil prices, have understandably heightened consumer fears.
Sources of Investment Power: Why Expertise Matters and What it Looks Like
There is a wide dispersion of ability in the investment services industry which makes it difficult to identify expertise. This is a shame because expertise is a critical factor in making good decisions and in avoiding bad ones. As the investment landscape becomes more difficult, it will become progressively more important to identify and access expertise.
Weekly Market Summary
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch,
Coming into this week, SPY had been above its 5-dma for 30 days in a row. This was a new record, unlike any streak the index has ever seen. We reviewed prior examples of these streaks earlier; our conclusion was that the streak rarely marked the top in the market, meaning there were higher highs immediately ahead after the streak ended. But the index also struggled in the following weeks, often trading lower.
Dont You Worry bout a Thing: Tell That to Individual Investors!
by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab,
Some attitudinal measures of investor sentiment show troublingly high levels of optimism. Longer-term sentiment surveys that separate individuals from institutions show something much, much different. These longer-term surveys suggest theres little risk that the wall of worry the market likes to climb is crumbling.
Revisiting a YouTube Classic
Back in the summer of 2011, a short animated film was built using a website called XtraNormal. The site allows anyone to create a film and chose animated characters and voices. This one particular film sought to educate (with the creators strong opinions included) the audience on the Federal Reserves Quantitative Easing (QE) program, which then was in its middle stages. And boy, did it find an audience, with over 5 million people viewing it!
Five Things To Ponder: Unstoppable Force Paradox
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
As we enter the final month of the year, the markets advance got me thinking about something known as the "Unstoppable Force Paradox." While you may not be familiar with the name, you will certainly know the definition which questions "What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?"
China's One-Child Policy
by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia,
Last November, Chinas Communist Party announced that it would relax its famed one-child policyone of the most draconian examples of government social engineering ever seen. This is a significant political move, as it represents the Partys decision to withdraw from its citizens bedrooms, restoring a key element of personal freedom that should help rebuild peoples trust in the Party. But what some observers may not realize is that the steepest fall in Chinas total fertility rate (the average number of live births per woman) actually came be
Draghi Crosses the Rubicon while Juncker Peddles "Europhemisms"
The announcement by newly installed European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker of a package designed to secure 315 billion of investment for the eurozone garnered a lot of press interest in late November. However, John Beck, director of Fixed Income, London, and portfolio manager, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, believes a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi at a bankers conference in Frankfurt earlier in the month offers more practical insight for investors. Here he outlines lessons to take from Draghis speech in the lions
Monetary Policy Outlook
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The minutes of the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting suggested that there is still no consensus opinion among senior officials regarding when the Fed will begin raising short-term interest rates. There is strong agreement that monetary policy moves will be data-dependent. However, policymakers differ in their views on the amount of slack in the job market.
Right for the Wrong Reason
by Tim Gramatovich of AdvisorShares,
It has been a poorly kept secret that I am among the biggest skeptics in the planet as it relates to this whole US energy independence fantasy. As a credit investor, I have been no bid on the entire US E&P business. This was not an easy thing to sidestep as energy as a sub-set is by far the largest component of the various high yield indexes representing around 18%1.
Is the Oil Price Slump an Early Holiday Gift for Some Consumers?
With 60% of global GDP driven by consumers, the impact that sustained lower oil prices will have on the global economy is an important factor for investors to take into account. The benefits of lower oil prices will not be evenly distributed and it is important to think about countries that stand to benefit more because of higher consumption and/or less economic dependence on oil exports.
Getting More From Your Equity and Bond Benchmarks
by Ryan Blute of PIMCO,
Benchmarks have long served as a starting point, or anchor, for investors, representing the neutral point for an investment decision. They serve as the basic ingredients that combine to form an investors asset allocation and result in a desired risk/return profile.
2015?
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Year-end letters are always difficult to write because there is a tendency to discuss the year gone by, or worse, try and predict what is going to happen in the New Year. I mean really, at this time last year who predicted Russia would invade Crimea, that ISIS would effectively take over a significant portion of Iraq, or the Republicans would sweep Congress.
Three Reasons Why Municipal Bonds May Offer More Than Just Tax-Exempt Income
Tax-exempt income historically has been the main reason why investors buy municipal bonds. As a result of newer tax laws, including several provisions that expired at the end of 2013, tax bills for high-income earners have increased in recent years.
Why OPEC Will Tolerate Cheap Oil
by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital,
Despite falling oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) voted on November 27th not to cut production in order to boost prices. The key to this decision appears to have been the attitude of Saudi Arabia, which has long been the first among equals in the coalition.
The Great Escape??
by Tony Crescenzi of PIMCO,
Since the financial crisis, the Fed has engaged both conventional and unconventional tools in a colossal effort to smooth the deleveraging process, help put Americans back to work and boost wage growth. The Fed has achieved two out of three "escapes": 1) Escape from a liquidity trap: Get banks to lend. 2) Escape from quantitative easing: Stop the bond buying program. 3) Escape from the zero bound: Hike the policy rate above zero. Over the longer term, portfolios should be positioned for low policy rates not only in the U.S., but also in Europe and Japan.
Exchange Rate 101: A Primer For International Investors
by Bryce Fegley of Saturna Capital,
A solid grasp of exchange rates and how they impact various asset classes can help international investors make better-informed decisions. The asset class most likely to be impacted negatively by a strengthening dollar is non-dollar fixed-rate bonds.
How Could They?
Punch and Judy fought for a pie. Punch gave Judy a sock in the eye. Said Punch to Judy, "Would you like any more?" Said Judy to Punch, "No my eye is too sore." Mother Goose nursery rhyme. Ah, nursery rhymes! Intended for kids no less! The above little ditty could serve as a modern day NFL domestic playbook, I suppose, while a century ago it was but one of many lesson plans on what not to do when you grow up.
U.S. Economic Growth Picks Up
by Team of LPL Financial,
We believe the U.S. economy will continue its transition from the slow gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2011 - 2013 to more sustained, broad-based growth. We expect the U.S. economy will expand at a rate of 3% or slightly higher in 2015, which matches the average growth rate over the past 50 years.
What's Next for the Dollar and Gold?
by Axel Merk of Merk Investments,
Who would have predicted oil prices in the sixty-dollar range a year ago? Something is not right about these markets. Our take: dont get burned when markets add fuel to the fire. Heres what to watch out for as we head into 2015; ignore at your own peril.
ISM Data for October and November Point to Strong U.S. Real GDP Growth in 2014 Q4
At the start of each month, the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released data on the state of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries of the U.S. economy. The data are closely followed by economists, stock market brokers, and the media as they provide the earliest reading on the current state of the economy.
The Illusion Of Full Employment And Technology
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Recently, Tim Duy wrote an interesting piece entitled "Yes, I am Optimistic" wherein he stated that: "The lesson no one wants to draw from this recovery is that the US economy is both stronger and more resilient than commonly believed. Do not dismiss the real improvement in the economy since 2009. It is not unimportant that 2014 is likely to be the biggest year for private sector employment..."
Digging Deeper for Market Valuations
Nobody buys a house without looking inside. And nobody should make investment decisions without doing their due diligence on the underlying fundamentals. But that is exactly what happens in an investment world increasingly driven by high-level asset allocation and utilization of passive, index-based products or strategies. Pundits look at aggregate index data and declare one country cheap (or some other action-inducing characteristic) vs. another. Maybe they are right, but maybe they are missing something too.
A Brave New World
In the the last two Absolute Return Letters I have argued why one should expect global GDP growth to be below average over the next decade or so, why interest rates should, as a consequence, remain low and why equity returns should also disappoint. Not as in negative returns but below the levels we have grown accustomed to over the past 30 years. If you have read those two letters, none of this should come as a surprise.
Recession Probability Models - December 2014
by Ted Kavadas of StratX, LLC,
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I dont agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored.
Results 6,851–6,900
of 19,804 found.
