The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by holding the federal funds rate (FFR) steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

Nominal retail sales were up 0.88% month-over-month and up 6.88% year-over-year in May. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.41% month-over-month and up 2.60% year-over-year.

According to the Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report, consumer spending climbed for the fourth straight month in May. Headline sales rose 0.9%, almost double the projected 0.5% growth and marking an acceleration from April's 0.4% rise.

It’s a busy finish to the first half on the corporate event calendar. The bulls have the lead, but the bears have had their moments of glory so far this year. A handful of key AGMs, conferences, and earnings events will keep investors on their toes amid a colorful macro backdrop.

I was asked by an advisory firm to speak to their clients at their recent client event. I was able to share the “Five Secrets of Human Behavior,” and all attendees received my similarly named book. In today’s column, I’ll outline these secrets and share why they matter from a leadership perspective.

Compliance risks happen when AI-enabled workflows expand faster than their governance model. It becomes a blind spot when AI solutions are built faster than the organization’s ability to map them against the right regulatory, operational, and data-governance controls.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index jumped 3.8% in May to 76.8, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain and highest level in six months.

Apple Inc. investors are losing patience with the company’s talk about becoming a more formidable presence in artificial intelligence and want to start seeing some results.

SpaceX gained for a fourth straight day, cementing the company’s place among the world’s most valuable stocks after it surpassed Amazon.com Inc.

As new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh leads his first policy meeting, falling oil prices are set to smooth the way for a rally in fixed income, according to MUFG’s chief of US macro strategy, George Goncalves.

Investors from Fidelity say new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stands to stoke bond-market volatility by offering his views on inflation.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset-management arm is urging investors to stick with stocks and other higher-risk assets in the second half of 2026, arguing that an AI investment boom and resilient consumers should keep the expansion intact despite persistent inflation and a Federal Reserve on hold.

The instinct when deploying any new technology is to start small. Run a pilot. Test with a subset of data, a single team, or a simplified version of the real workflow. That instinct is sensible — but with AI agents, it carries different risks than those that exist with traditional software.

This week J.P. Morgan Asset Management launched two actively managed municipal bond ETFs focused on California and New York debt, offering investors a way to earn tax-free income inside a more flexible and transparent fund structure.

Bitcoin rose for the first time in five weeks, rebounding over 5% but still holding below the $70,000 threshold. BTC is currently down approximately 25% year-to-date and sits about 47% below its October 2025 record high.

The catalyst that turns a healthy pullback into something deeper won’t be a single oil-soaked CPI print. It’ll be the moment forward earnings expectations start to roll over while valuations sit at the high end of history. We aren’t there yet.

For insurers, fixed income remains the foundation of portfolio strategy. But while public markets have long provided unrivaled sourcing capacity and liquidity, the definition of “core” is widening.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week in what will be Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair of the Federal Reserve. President Trump has been vocal about wanting to see lower yields and general consensus is that Warsh was his pick due to Warsh’s general lean towards lower rates.

The slippery slope never fails. Go back to the 1979 Chrysler bailout and we can find the roots of the US government’s current predilection for getting involved in stocks and bonds.

On Monday, June 15, Guggenheim Investments debuted a pair of new fixed income ETFs. Each of these new funds offers an active take on the fixed income space. This may help investors looking to amplify portfolio yield.

On June 12, SpaceX went public with a US$2 trillion valuation—the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever, by far. It has been the most anticipated IPO in more than two decades and likely ushers in a series of high-profile IPOs in the coming months, including for OpenAI and Anthropic.

One of the most debated topics in private credit is the size of the investment opportunity – or, in industry parlance, the total addressable market (TAM). But the way TAM is typically framed can be misleading.

Markets returned to positive territory for the week, with the turning point occurring Thursday after the announcement of a potential deal with Iran that would extend the ceasefire while reopening the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since February 27.

The Iran conflict, inflation reports, and the largest initial public offering of all time each took its turn in the spotlight last week. The fragile ceasefire with Iran looked ready to collapse after Iran shot down a U.S. Apache helicopter, and the U.S. retaliated with strikes on Iran.

J.P. Morgan converted two mutual funds into active muni ETFs for California and New York investors seeking tax-free income.

Gas prices retreated for a fifth straight week, reaching their lowest level in eight weeks. As of June 15th, weekly prices were down 9 cents for regular and down 10 cents for premium gasoline.

A massive advisor retirement wave is reshaping wealth management. Discover how $2.5 trillion in assets may fuel industry transformation.

Margin debt rose for a second straight month in May, reaching a new record high of $1.42 trillion. This marked an 8.5% increase from April and a 53.7% rise compared to the previous year.

Advisors, who have recently broken away to start their own shops, must learn to strike the right balance when getting personal with clients — and part of that requires data.

Building permits inched down 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.413 million in May. The latest reading missed the forecast of 1.420 million.

Housing starts sank 15.4% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million, the lowest level in six years. The latest reading was significantly lower than the projected 1.430 million.

Jensen Huang may see Marvell Technology Inc. as the stock market’s “next trillion-dollar company,” but it’s going to take a lot of growth for the chipmaker to even sniff that lofty level.

What prediction markets add is something equities never offered: a way for thousands of people to sell small bits of information — a logistics clerk’s observation, a local journalist’s hunch — that are individually worthless and collectively a forecast.

Financial markets generally displayed exuberance Monday after the US and Iran agreed to an interim peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell to the lowest since early March and the S&P 500 Index surged, leaving it just a few points below its all-time high reached at the start of the month.

Brent oil fell below $80 a barrel for the first time in more than three months as the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz boosted expectations for a revival in supply, with leading Wall Street banks reducing their price forecasts and regional benchmarks collapsing.

SpaceX shares jumped on Tuesday, putting the firm on track to overtake Amazon.com Inc. as the fifth largest publicly traded company in the world just days after its blockbuster debut.

Philanthropy conversations can open the door to multigenerational planning, as clients can bring in their children to contribute to discussions of shared values and charitable goals. For advisors, that creates an opportunity to become not just a financial resource, but a trusted partner who helps clients connect wealth with purpose.

Most couples who argue about money are arguing from different money scripts – the deeply held beliefs about money that each partner formed long before the relationship began. Uncovering and understanding those scripts, individually and together, may be one of the more useful things a couple can do.

Tariff rates will vary, but their persistence is certain.

New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will preside over his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16-17, stepping in at a complex moment with inflation at a three-year high as oil prices remain elevated, labor market risks easing with job growth averaging ~140,000 year to date versus only 10,000 last year, and hawkish voices on the Fed gaining traction.

As we go to press, fighting in the Mideast has escalated, sending crude higher, but stocks, in early Monday trade, have shown remarkable stability following Friday’s deep selloff.

The U.S. initial public offering (IPO) market appears to be entering one of its most consequential periods in years. After a long drought following the 2021 issuance boom, a healthier macro backdrop, improved risk appetite, and a long queue of mature private companies have reopened the new-issue window.

For many investors, retirement planning becomes most tangible at the start and end of the year. Goals are set in January, then revisited during year-end tax and financial planning discussions. But the middle of the year offers an equally valuable opportunity: a chance to evaluate progress, reassess assumptions, and make adjustments before small issues become larger challenges.

As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) on June 11, responding to the energy shock from the Iran war. Inflation was revised higher for 2026 and 2027, and it is expected to fall to target in 2028. Although we expect one more hike, the timing is uncertain as the ECB is keeping all options open—including the possibility of not raising rates again.

This week the Fed has its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. For only the third time in US history, the former Chair, Jerome Powell, will still participate as a regular member of the Board of Governors.

Gold has always had a way of testing investors’ expectations. Just when the headlines appear most supportive—inflation is rising, geopolitical risk is escalating and confidence in fiat currency is being questioned—gold can suddenly move in the opposite direction.

Advisors searching for diversification from a concentrated S&P 500 Index often reach for equal-weight strategies. However, a new report argues that all equal-weight approaches are not interchangeable.

Several ETFs have added exposure to Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) after the aerospace giant completed the largest initial public offering in market history. Trading on the Nasdaq, SpaceX surged 19% from its initial $135 offering price to close at $160.95 per share, notching a historic $2.1 trillion valuation. Actively managed ETF vehicles were able to use their operational flexibility to add positions in SpaceX at its debut.

Six of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through June 15, 2026.