Today, we introduce the Price of Certainty: How much do you need to invest to achieve a particular set of cashflows over time, with varying degrees of certainty?
This article does not discuss the rationale of owning gold as a long-term asset. Instead, it questions the recent jump in gold prices and whether the current levels are fundamentally justified.
Trian and General Catalyst are looking to drive the next phase of growth at the firm with the help of AI, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential information.
The latest inflation data was softer than anticipated and has locked in expectations for a couple of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to close out 2025. But inflation is far from dead, and the labor market is far from collapsing — policymakers would be wise to proceed cautiously.
The question of the moment in markets is whether we are in an AI bubble, as stocks seem awfully expensive amid hopes that artificial intelligence will transform the economy. But there is another curiosity that is far more concerning: low credit spreads. That suggests a low-risk environment — which describes precisely nothing about this market.
A meeting Thursday between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is set to be one of the key diplomatic events of the year, with the US-China economic relationship at stake following multiple rounds of escalating tensions and temporary truces.
US stocks gained early Monday as the US and China homed in on a trade deal during a crucial week on Wall Street marked by Big Tech earnings and a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision.
Bold calls to “run to gold, silver, and bitcoin” make for strong headlines, but they oversimplify the reality of modern finance. As we’ve seen, money supply growth is not inherently a sign of debasement but reflects economic expansion. Far from being destructive, government deficits flow directly into private-sector savings and stabilize household balance sheets.
It’s not just the US, China, and Japan that have debt issues. It’s a large portion of the developing countries, and especially Europe. The developed world now has as much debt in terms of GDP as it did during the Napoleonic Wars. And as much or more debt (and growing!) than it did following World War II.
Nuclear-related stocks have seen significant positive momentum this year. In addition to policy tailwinds, investors are recognizing the critical need for reliable, carbon-free power generation for years to come. Nuclear represents a compelling opportunity in that vein.
Technology stocks have continued to benefit from enthusiasm over the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI). Yet many investors are concerned that share prices and valuations may reflect overly exuberant earnings expectations.
As we move into the final quarter of 2025, I’m cautiously optimistic. The extreme policy uncertainty that plagued the first half has diminished significantly. The Fed is cutting rates but not in panic mode. Corporate earnings remain healthy.
While policy and geopolitical risks persist, we believe many countries are better positioned to absorb trade shocks and attract funding. And with spreads near historical lows but yields still elevated, we believe the asset class continues to offer compelling opportunities—particularly in high-yield and select frontier markets.
U.S.-China frictions continue, highlighting that greater volatility is likely not a bug of the current trade stand-off but a feature of the emerging geopolitical landscape.
For many investors, the fear of missing out on market gains is usually second to the pain that comes from taking a loss in their portfolios. This is why many struggle to stay invested during rocky markets.
Many people see the stock market as a casino, but according to Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs and “Mr. Valuation,” the truth is far more rational. How does the stock market work? The market isn’t about luck — it’s a mechanism for allocating capital and rewarding disciplined investors who understand value.
Friday, October 10 was a forgettable day all the way around for risk assets. Those included cryptocurrency and crypto-related equities. The CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) wasn’t immune to the broader market pullback.
JPMAM has converted a major muni bond fund to the ETF wrapper, as muni bond ETF JMUB arrives on the stage.
While the ongoing government shutdown continues to delay the release of many reports, a key piece of economic data managed to break through last week.
Not all low volatility strategies are created equal. The goal may be simple — smoother returns with less risk — but execution determines success. Portfolios built only on historical volatility can leave investors vulnerable.
Up to now, the Federal Reserve and the bond market have been operating under the assumption that the employment setting has been cooling in a somewhat visible fashion. In fact, recent comments from Powell & Co. underscore how the employment aspect of their dual mandate is where the greater risk may lie.
Though deemed to be “Modern” portfolio theory (MPT), the primary framework used to construct diversified portfolios and deliver risk-adjusted investment returns is now well over 50 years old. Enhancements have helped keep MPT’s 60% equity and 40% bond allocation formula relevant for decades.
The Fed’s balance sheet has two sides: On the asset side are Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities—the financial instruments the Fed buys to inject money into the economy. On the liability side are the reserves that banks hold at the Fed, along with physical currency in circulation.
A rivalry at the heart of Russia's oil trade is threatening the crucial operations the Kremlin relies on to fund its war in Ukraine, just as the US cranks up the pressure on Moscow.
Gold has been top of mind for many investors this week, with prices falling significantly at the start of the week. Despite a strong run in 2025, traditional valuation models suggest gold prices may have become somewhat stretched, creating some fragility in the asset class.
Jane Fraser’s elevation to chair as well as chief executive officer of Citigroup Inc. is a reward for progress and a bulwark against potential pretenders to her throne. Her restructuring of the lumbering and longtime dysfunctional beast that is the US’s third-largest bank by assets is taking time and is far from done.
Monthly checks for nearly 71 million Americans receiving Social Security benefits will increase by 2.8% next year, a slightly larger adjustment than seen in 2025.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. has hired veteran technology dealmaker Kevin Brunner from Bank of America Corp. as a global chair of investment banking and mergers and acquisitions.
The equity market has shown remarkable resilience over the past two weeks despite rising U.S.-China trade tensions, a spike in equity market volatility, and growing credit concerns tied to business development company (BDC) and regional bank lending losses.
A weakening greenback is being compounded by global de-dollarization and lower interest rates, creating an environment for emerging markets (EM) ETFs to prosper. In turn, more investors are flocking into EM equities, but for more targeted exposure, South Korea could present an intriguing alternative.
For those new to the practice, it’s relatively straightforward. Nearly every investor and advisor has an investment that is on track for a loss this year. Not all investments hit, after all. Selling at a loss helps tamp down a portfolio’s overall gains for the record books, reducing the end-of-year tax bill, “harvesting” losses to offset gains.
Join the experts at Eaton Vance as they explore how the securitized market fits in, and how mortgages and securitized assets could fair in today’s unusual environment.
Investors will be looking beyond the bottom line in chipmaker Intel Corp.’s third-quarter earnings after a wave of investments from the White House, Nvidia Corp. and Softbank Group Corp. sent the stock soaring 86% in less than three months.
For half a century, Vanguard has been the high priest of passive investing. Its low-cost index funds have reshaped finance, humbled stockpickers, and made the Pennsylvania-based firm an $11.6 trillion behemoth.
It’s no exaggeration to say Amazon.com Inc. invented the cloud business. Amazon Web Services took the corporate data center apart and split it into pieces, building pay-as-you go services delivered with remarkable speed and consistency.
The core consumer price index, excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.2% from August, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Friday. That was restrained by the smallest increase in a key measure of housing costs since early 2021.
Gold resembles stocks more than bonds in terms of risk, although stocks have been better performers. Since 1968, gold has been about 20% more volatile than the S&P 500 while trailing it by 2.3 percentage points a year.
The investment case for private assets in DC plans hinges on choosing high-performing managers—specifically those in the top third of the performance spectrum, committing to long holding periods, and accepting the risk of underperformance over time.
After an extended period of surprisingly resilient economic activity, marked by buoyant consumer spending and robust labor market gains, the U.S. economy is shifting gears. The sprint phase, characterized by fiscal tailwinds and pent-up demand, is giving way to a more measured pace.
We believe an OCIO partnership is the stronger choice. With broad access to top-tier managers, scale advantages, deep operational infrastructure and critical resources to oversee risk and capital deployment, OCIOs can often take advantages of opportunities that single-strategy boutiques often cannot.
The centerpiece of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is the extension of current income tax rates and brackets that were due to expire at the end of the year.
To analyze the impact of the Fed’s rate cut on the bond market, we are going to look at the impact of Treasuries maturing between 2 and 10 years and Treasuries maturing between 10 and 30 years. We will explore the month prior to the Fed’s September meeting and the month after, in order to understand the full impact of the Fed’s decision to cut rates.
The interest rate volatility over the last three years has many investors reaching for bond ladders. We think there’s a best number of bonds to navigate the market and, coincidentally, it has something in common with a sci-fi classic.
Aggressive policy changes from Washington have introduced potential long-term economic risks, but markets continue to rally because the near-term conditions remain favorable.
As noted by TMX VettaFi Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth, fixed income ETFs are having a banner year amid record inflows. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) and Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (BNDX) were two of the top funds responsible for the $325 billion in net inflows (as of October 15).
In a nutshell, the price of silver is rising because there simply isn’t enough metal to meet demand.
By contrast with traditional discretionary approaches, systematic fixed-income models are exclusively data-driven and operate autonomously—ranking securities, constructing optimized portfolios and managing risk without traditional inputs or discretionary overlays.
Join the experts at CoinShares for a free educational webcast that puts these concerns into context and separates fact from fiction.
China is leveraging its position as the world’s largest creditor to help broaden usage of the yuan, offering overseas borrowers the chance to benefit from economically-depressed interest rates at home by ditching the dollar.
The world’s largest alternative asset manager sent the strongest signal yet that dealmaking is coming back. Blackstone Inc.’s distributable earnings surged 48% in the third quarter, fueled by a burst of investment exits from its private equity arm, the firm said Thursday.
