The expectation of rate cuts is not only fueling news-sensitive trades in emerging markets equities, but also in bonds.

Investors continue to pile into bond funds, looking to add yield now before the Federal Reserve starts instituting rate cuts.

Every week I post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the latest number, and the market often reacts, for a few minutes or a few hours, to the initial estimate, which is always revised the following week.

Investors attach a $2.3 trillion valuation to Alphabet Inc. for its status as an internet search behemoth and AI innovator. Yet even that massive figure underplays YouTube’s true worth, according to analysts at Needham & Co.

Life has been getting busier for investment bankers, but dealmakers aren’t cashing any checks yet. A stream of big-ticket merger and acquisition announcements this year bodes well for future revenue and bonuses, but no one gets paid until deals are completed. And that might not happen until late 2024 or even next year.

Piper Sandler & Co. is eliminating its price target for the S&P 500 Index. Its Wall Street counterparts should follow suit.

Tracking down those in the technology industry cautious about artificial intelligence is much like looking for Republicans in San Francisco: There’s plenty of them out there, if you’d care to ask. And lately, they seem to be growing in number.

Microsoft Corp. and Apple Inc. dropped plans to take board roles at OpenAI in a surprise decision that underscores growing regulatory scrutiny of Big Tech’s influence over artificial intelligence.

Trust is a precious commodity and the importance of authenticity cannot be overstated. Whether in healthcare, education, or business, being genuine and transparent is essential for building strong, lasting relationships. However, nowhere is this truer than in the financial advisory industry.

I love questions like this one – the chance to think creatively and brainstorm “what could be” without the stress of having to do something right now. I have some suggestions to start thinking about what you could do when you have more latitude and less financial responsibility.

AI and automation will revolutionize the financial advisory industry. These technologies enhance efficiency, improve client communication, and enable data-driven decision-making. By 2035, AI will be integral to most advisory firms.

Almost every industry could ultimately incorporate AI, leaving a puzzle for investors seeking exposure. Using the internet as an example may provide some breadcrumbs.

The world could be undergoing a transformation akin to past technological revolutions. But the speed, size and impact of that investment is highly uncertain. We think leaning into the transformation and adapting as the outlook changes will be key.

The global population has surpassed 8 billion and according to the United Nations, it is projected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050.¹ However, the rate of population growth is slowing and is expected to continue to decline. Seems counterintuitive, no?

Over the last four years, we have maintained that the U.S. middle-class consumer is on firmer ground than many believe. The first wave of inflation that seems to be receding is just that—the first wave of a set—and oil and gas companies are fundamentally well-positioned for the next decade.

While the temperatures were rising, the U.S. stock market continued its climb higher as well. The S&P 500 returned 3.5% and Emerging Market stocks delivered an impressive 3.9%. Bonds also returned positively in June.

Morgan Stanley recently discussed the outsized impact of fiscal policy as well as the U.S. dollar looking ahead.

Many investors hold a concentrated stock position that represents a large percentage—typically 10% to 20%—of their overall portfolio value. Let’s review the risks of concentrated positions and then survey some of the possible solutions.

What should equity investors look for to find companies with strong economic profits, backed by clear business advantages?

The China trade shock of the 1990s and 2000s is widely blamed for hollowing out the US manufacturing sector. But anyone who thinks that unwinding trade with China will not result in price increases and significant political backlash is in for a rude awakening.

Earnings season is just around the corner. It could prove critical to justifying the record rally we’ve seen thus far in 2024.

As RIAs and broker-dealers consider how to allocate future spending, they would be wise to recognize how technology designed to support fee-for-service financial planning can help them meet their most immediate goals while also allowing them to grow and nurture next-generation wealth management clients.

Implementing the net wealth mindset in practice involves developing detailed financial plans that align with each client's needs and priorities, and crafting a client-centered service model.

On July 1st, Innovator is expanding the world’s first and largest suite of 100% Buffer ETFs with the launch of three new ETFs providing upside to U.S. equities with built-in 100% downside protection over 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year outcome periods.

With markets at all-time highs, Innovator’s 100% Buffer ETF suite could be the ideal solution for investors to move sidelined cash into U.S. equities with 100% downside protection and tax alpha over bonds and cash.

Additionally, short-term yields continue to hover near their highest levels since 2007, which continue to generate the highest caps we’ve seen since then. Now may be the time to take advantage of these historically high caps before they disappear.

In this product spotlight happening on July 9th at 12:30 pm ET, Innovator’s Chief Investment Officer Graham Day, CFA will unpack the industry’s first and largest suite of 100% Buffer ETFs.

Dimensional’s Kaitlin Hendrix explains the firm’s new unified managed account platform, which enables financial advisors to scale with Dimensional or non-Dimensional ETF model management and customize with Dimensional SMAs. VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy highlights the top 20 active ETFs by inflows in 2024.

Traditional selling has always been about persuasion and creating forward momentum in the sales conversation. Ironically, although your prospects have specific agendas, they won’t allow you into their world if they sense you’re operating with one.

We think all signs point to the labor market as the oracle – personal consumption supports earnings upside.

VettaFi discusses the upcoming election and potential implications for the energy sector.

Traders should brace for a significant pullback in the stock market as uncertainty swirls around the US presidential campaign, corporate earnings and Federal Reserve policy, according to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson.

Struggling under the weight of interest rates, highly-levered assets within private equity and real estate are promising distressed investors some of the best opportunities in more than a decade, according to Howard Marks, co-chairman and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management.

If the companies that derive revenue from products and services that help reduce carbon emissions were taken as a single industry group, they would have had the second-best financial performance of any equity sector over the past decade.

The world’s largest technology stocks drove a banner first half for the S&P 500. The question for the rest of the year is whether their strength continues.

America’s housing crisis is often portrayed as a matter of supply. Depending on whom you ask, the shortfall is anywhere from 1.5 million to 7 million homes. Much of the policy debate focuses on how to close that gap.

Markets today pose a new existential question: Can there be a bubble in something if it has no price?

The labor market continues to normalize and soften, but we think any further weakening might push the Fed to cut rates before the 2% inflation target is reached.

It’s inevitable. A recession is coming. Whether it gets here next month, next quarter, next year, or next decade will be continuously debated until it arrives. Yet, one thing that everyone will agree on is that we will have another recession eventually.

When researching what would be the companies most likely to benefit from the recent AI advancements, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, came up with 29 names.

There’s more evidence that growth is slowing, but it appears manageable and unlikely to lead to recession. While rate cuts have begun outside the US, we expect the Fed to follow suit by December. Political developments, especially the election cycle, are now coming into frame.

Last week we had our quarterly live call for Yield Shark subscribers. We had some great conversations over the course of the hour. One of the major topics that came up was what will happen through the end of the year. Will we see a correction or a rotation? If so, when will this happen? And most important, how can we prepare?

The employment report from last Friday, in my view, was weak. Although the headline number came in slightly above expectations, the composition was troublesome, with more than 110k jobs subtracted from the last two months and private sector jobs lagging.

We aren’t naturally cynical about economic data, but there are things that don’t add up about the job market.

The addition of Dell Technologies and Super Micro boosted the weighting to the technology sector. We also analyze changes to the value and growth indexes.

Despite the Fed’s “significant progress” in lowering inflation, most citizens are outraged and confused by economists’ relatively rosy inflation observations. Most citizens believe inflation is still rampant.

Large-cap U.S. stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, have dominated in both absolute and risk-adjusted terms. They are soaring. It’s the Roaring ’20s again!

Those wishing to explore the gap between the nation’s apparent macroeconomic success and its microeconomic malaise would do well to consult Ruchir Sharma’s What Went Wrong with Capitalism.

Investors may want to opt for a middle-ground solution for yield and rate risk with intermediate bond funds.

In the week ending on June 3, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 1.09% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.13%.

The oil company declared its traditional business was all but over. “The demand for fossil oil products will continue to decline,” it said in late 2020 as the pandemic slashed consumption. Even when Covid-19 is over, consumption wouldn’t “recover to previous levels.”

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. rose to a record intraday high in Taipei after Morgan Stanley joined a list of brokers boosting price targets on the chipmaker before its earnings.

The bond trade that some of Wall Street’s biggest banks say will dominate the rest of 2024 is gaining steam before a crucial inflation reading that will help seal the wager’s fate.